Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Kelowna International Airport, British Columbia

Aurora Visibility1Poor

Kp: 0.67 | Bz: -1.84

Prediction11Little to None

Current Conditions: Little to no aurora activity in Kelowna International Airport - sky brightening toward civil twilight. Skies are clear.

Predicted Outlook: Little to no aurora activity expected tonight. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet.

Best Viewing Window: 8:16 PM – 5:41 AM PDT (9h 25m)

Bz -1.84 nT Aurora None Civil Twilight Clear Skies · 0% Prediction 11 · Little to None Waning Gibbous 79% Color Key

Space Weather Now

Kp (now)

0.67

Forecast Kp (today)

Bz (nT)

-1.84

HPI

6 Minimal

Dst (nT)

Density (p/cc)

3.6

Speed (km/s)

413

Sky / Darkness

Clear Civil Twilight

Sunspot Number

Timing: Tonight · Confidence: Low

Webcam

No aurora cams nearby. Center on nearest camera (672 km away).

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3-Day Forecast for Kelowna International Airport, British Columbia

Tonight's forecast peaks at Kp 1.7, short of the roughly Kp 4 the aurora usually needs to be seen from Kelowna International Airport.

Sep 01

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Best time to look up: 8:00 PM–11:00 PM PDT

15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window

Sep 02

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Best time to look up: 8:00 PM–11:00 PM PDT

15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window

Sep 03

Forecast Pending

This night's forecast isn't in NOAA's 3-day window yet - check back closer to the date.

This night's forecast isn't available yet - check back closer to the date.

Quiet across all 3 days - low likelihood of an aurora display.

Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun

Aurora Probability

LowHigh

Interactive Aurora Globe

Full-size Aurora Globe

Satellite View

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National Weather Service

Sunspots

Current sunspot number: 81

SOHO

Coronal Mass Ejections

Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)

Bt: 5.3 nT
Bx: -3.6 nT
By: -3.4 nT
Bz: -1.84 nT
Clock Angle θ: -20.2°
Cone Angle φ: 223.9°
Speed: 413 km/s
Density: 3.6 p/cc

Real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinates - the values the prediction model actually runs on.

IMF Detail (GSE) & Source

Bx: -3.6 nT
By: -2.8 nT
Bz: -2.7 nT
θ Angle: -30.6°
φ Angle: 218.2°
Satellite: SOLAR-1
Data Quality: Good
Reading Time: Aug 31, 7:06 PM PDT

The same magnetic field reading in geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) coordinates, plus which satellite it came from and how fresh it is.

Geomagnetic Indices

Kp (now): 0.67
Dst: 0 nT
HPI: 6 GW
Sunspot Number: 81

Headline storm-activity indices - Kp (planetary), Dst (ring current), HPI (hemispheric power), and today's sunspot count.

Aurora Model

Ovation Value: 1
Ovation Label: None
Model Data Time: Sep 1, 6:43 AM PDT
Ovation Data: Live

NOAA's OVATION Prime output - how far south the aurora oval is likely to extend right now.

Scores & Ratings

Aurora Visibility: 1 · Poor
Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon): 1 · Poor
Prediction Score: 11 · Little to None

This page's three scores side by side - raw activity, moon/cloud-adjusted visibility, and the forecast.

Sky & Location

Cloud Cover: 0% · Clear
Solar Elevation: -4.1° · Civil Twilight
Moon Phase: Waning Gibbous
Moon Illumination: 79%
Moon Altitude: 50.5° · Up
Latitude: 49.95611
Longitude: -119.37778
Geomagnetic Latitude: 55.8°
Horizon Threshold: Kp 4
Overhead Threshold: Kp 6

Local sky and moon conditions - what actually turns the raw aurora score into a real visibility score for this spot.

Prediction Model Inputs

Bz Persistence (60min): -0.8 nT
Newell Coupling: 6235
Dynamic Pressure: 1 nPa
Storm Watch (CME): —
Watch Predicted Kp: —

The individual weighted inputs - Bz persistence, coupling, pressure, CME timing - that combine into the Prediction score.

Timing & Confidence

Timing: Tonight
Confidence: Low
L1 Delay: ~3632 min
Best Viewing Window: 8:16 PM – 5:41 AM PDT (9h 25m)

How soon a solar wind change reaches Earth, how confident the model is right now, and today's best window to actually look up.

3-Day Kp Forecast

PDT	Sep 01	Sep 02	Sep 03
5:00 PM–8:00 PM	3	2	1.67
8:00 PM–11:00 PM	3	1.67	1.67
11:00 PM–2:00 AM	2	1.67	1.33
2:00 AM–5:00 AM	1.33	1.33	0.67
5:00 AM–8:00 AM	1.33	0.67	0.67
8:00 AM–11:00 AM	1.67	1.33	1.33
11:00 AM–2:00 PM	2	1.33	1.33
2:00 PM–5:00 PM	2	1.67	1.33
Max	3	2	1.67
Ap Index	8	5	5

Max Kp forecast under 4 for all 3 days - low likelihood of an aurora display.

Storm Probability

Level	Sep 01	Sep 02	Sep 03
Active	25%	15%	15%
Minor storm	5%	1%	1%
Moderate storm	1%	1%	1%
Strong-Extreme storm	1%	1%	1%

NOAA SWPC's official 3-day Kp forecast and geomagnetic storm probability - an independent second opinion alongside this page's own real-time model.

Planetary K-index

Aug 29

Aug 30

Aug 31

Sep 1

Now

Aug 31

Sep 1

Sep 2

Sep 3

Quiet (Kp 0-3) Unsettled (Kp 4) Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) Strong+ Storm (Kp 7-9) Forecast (hatched)

Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-1.8 nT now

Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.

Total IMF Field Bt5.1 nT now

Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.

Storm Trend21 now

Prediction score (0-100) over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.

Dst History0 nT now

Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.

Solar Wind Speed & Pressure

Speed: 413 km/s now Pressure: 1 nPa now

Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.

24-hour trend charts for the values above, so you can see whether conditions are building or fading.

Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.

Related Northern Lights Pages

Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Kelowna International Airport, British Columbia

Space Weather Now

Webcam