Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Longyearbyen

CME Alert: NOAA has issued a G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Watch for today (Kp 6 expected). A CME or fast solar wind stream is expected to reach Earth. Watch for a storm.

Aurora Visibility0Poor

Kp: 2.33 | Bz: -3.34

Prediction40Weak Activity

Current Conditions: Little to no aurora activity in Longyearbyen - sun well above the horizon. Aurora viewing is over for this morning. Overcast skies will likely block any aurora view.

Predicted Outlook: Weak aurora activity tonight. Faint auroras possible from high-latitude locations under dark skies.

Best Viewing Window: Continuous daylight right now - no dark-sky viewing window.

Bz -3.34 nT Aurora Weak Daytime Overcast · 99% Prediction 40 · Weak Activity Waning Gibbous 98% Color Key

Space Weather Now

Kp (now)

2.33

Forecast Kp (today)

5.67

Bz (nT)

-3.34

HPI

10 Low

Dst (nT)

-24

Density (p/cc)

15.8

Speed (km/s)

407

Sky / Darkness

Overcast Daytime

Sunspot Number

Timing: Tonight · Confidence: Moderate

Webcam

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3-Day Forecast for Longyearbyen

Right now the sky over Longyearbyen only dips into bright twilight after sunset and never gets truly dark, so the aurora cannot be seen no matter how strong the storm. Darker nights return around Sep 24.

Aug 29

Active

NOAA has issued a watch for this night (see below) - aurora may be visible at higher latitudes.

CME Watch: G2 (Moderate) · Kp 6 expected

Skies won't get dark enough to see aurora this day.

5% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3.67 max

Aug 30

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Skies won't get dark enough to see aurora this day.

40% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.67 max

Aug 31

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Skies won't get dark enough to see aurora this day.

10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2 max

Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun

Aurora Probability

LowHigh

Aurora Globe

Full-size Aurora Globe

Satellite View

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National Weather Service

Sunspots

Current sunspot number: 92

SOHO

Coronal Mass Ejections

Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)

Bt: 9.3 nT
Bx: -8.3 nT
By: 2 nT
Bz: -3.34 nT
Clock Angle θ: -21.2°
Cone Angle φ: 166.2°
Speed: 407 km/s
Density: 15.8 p/cc

Real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinates - the values the prediction model actually runs on.

IMF Detail (GSE) & Source

Bx: -8.3 nT
By: 3.1 nT
Bz: -2.1 nT
θ Angle: -13.3°
φ Angle: 159.4°
Satellite: SOLAR-1
Data Quality: Good
Reading Time: Aug 29, 8:22 AM CEST

The same magnetic field reading in geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) coordinates, plus which satellite it came from and how fresh it is.

Geomagnetic Indices

Kp (now): 2.33
Dst: -24 nT
HPI: 10 GW
Sunspot Number: 92

Headline storm-activity indices - Kp (planetary), Dst (ring current), HPI (hemispheric power), and today's sunspot count.

Aurora Model

Ovation Value: 6
Ovation Label: Weak
Model Data Time: Aug 29, 9:33 AM CEST
Ovation Data: Live

NOAA's OVATION Prime output - how far south the aurora oval is likely to extend right now.

Scores & Ratings

Aurora Visibility: 0 · Poor
Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon): 0 · Poor
Prediction Score: 40 · Weak Activity

This page's three scores side by side - raw activity, moon/cloud-adjusted visibility, and the forecast.

Sky & Location

Cloud Cover: 99% · Overcast
Solar Elevation: 13.8° · Daytime
Moon Phase: Waning Gibbous
Moon Illumination: 98%
Moon Altitude: -5.5° · Below Horizon
Latitude: 78.22334
Longitude: 15.64689
Geomagnetic Latitude: 75.2°
Horizon Threshold: Kp 1
Overhead Threshold: Kp 1

Local sky and moon conditions - what actually turns the raw aurora score into a real visibility score for this spot.

Prediction Model Inputs

Bz Persistence (60min): -5.8 nT
Newell Coupling: 12091
Dynamic Pressure: 4.4 nPa
Storm Watch (CME): ~0h · G2 (Moderate)
Watch Predicted Kp: 6

The individual weighted inputs - Bz persistence, coupling, pressure, CME timing - that combine into the Prediction score.

Timing & Confidence

Timing: Tonight
Confidence: Moderate
L1 Delay: ~3686 min
Best Viewing Window: Continuous daylight right now - no dark-sky viewing window.

How soon a solar wind change reaches Earth, how confident the model is right now, and today's best window to actually look up.

3-Day Kp Forecast

CEST	Aug 29	Aug 30	Aug 31
2:00 AM–5:00 AM	5.67	2.67	1.67
5:00 AM–8:00 AM	5.67	3.67	2
8:00 AM–11:00 AM	4.67	3.67	1.67
11:00 AM–2:00 PM	4.67	2.67	1.67
2:00 PM–5:00 PM	3.67	1.67	1
5:00 PM–8:00 PM	3.67	1	1
8:00 PM–11:00 PM	2.67	1.67	0.67
11:00 PM–2:00 AM	2.67	2.67	2
Max	5.67	3.67	2
Ap Index	35	12	5

Storm Probability

Level	Aug 29	Aug 30	Aug 31
Active	5%	40%	10%
Minor storm	30%	25%	1%
Moderate storm	40%	10%	1%
Strong-Extreme storm	25%	1%	1%

NOAA SWPC's official 3-day Kp forecast and geomagnetic storm probability - an independent second opinion alongside this page's own real-time model.

Planetary K-index

Aug 26

Aug 27

Aug 28

Aug 29

Now

Aug 30

Aug 31

Quiet (Kp 0-3) Unsettled (Kp 4) Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) Strong+ Storm (Kp 7-9) Forecast (hatched)

Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-1.5 nT now

Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.

Total IMF Field Bt8.5 nT now

Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.

Storm Trend52 now

Prediction score (0-100) over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.

Dst History-24 nT now

Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.

Solar Wind Speed & Pressure

Speed: 392 km/s now Pressure: 4.7 nPa now

Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.

24-hour trend charts for the values above, so you can see whether conditions are building or fading.

Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.

Related Northern Lights Pages

Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Longyearbyen

Space Weather Now

Webcam