Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Prince Albert, Saskatchewan

Aurora Visibility0Poor

Kp: 0.33 | Bz: 0.45

Prediction2Little to None

Current Conditions (as of 3:34 AM CST): Little to no aurora activity in Prince Albert. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet. Skies are clear.

Predicted Outlook (3:34 AM – 6:54 AM CST): Little to no aurora activity expected currently. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet.

Best Viewing Window: 3:34 AM – 6:54 AM CST (3h 20m) · peak hours typically 11:19 PM – 3:19 AM

Bz 0.45 nT Aurora None Dark Night Clear Skies · 0% Prediction 2 · Little to None Waxing Crescent 10% Color Key

Good Viewing Locations Nearby Little Red River Park 7 km Prince Albert National Park 90 km

Space Weather Now

Kp (now)

0.33

Forecast Kp (today)

3.67

Bz (nT)

0.45

HPI

6 Minimal · 12 GW

Dst (nT)

-11

Density (p/cc)

3.5

Speed (km/s)

565

Sky / Darkness

Clear Dark Night

Sunspot Number

102

Timing: Now · Signal Strength: High

3-Day Forecast for Prince Albert, Saskatchewan

Tonight's forecast peaks at Kp 2.7, and Prince Albert needs about Kp 2 for the aurora to clear the northern horizon, so it may be visible low to the north, though activity is still on the quiet side.

Oct 13

Global: Active Prince Albert: Possible

Kp 2.7 clears the roughly Kp 2 Prince Albert needs - aurora possible low on the northern horizon under dark, clear skies.

Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.

Best time to look up: 3:00 AM–6:00 AM CST

35% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.67 during viewing window

Oct 14

Global: Active Prince Albert: Possible

Kp 3.3 clears the roughly Kp 2 Prince Albert needs - aurora possible low on the northern horizon under dark, clear skies.

Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.

Best time to look up: 9:00 PM–12:00 AM CST

20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3.33 during viewing window

Oct 15

Global: Quiet Prince Albert: Borderline

Kp 1.7 is right around the roughly Kp 2 Prince Albert needs - a borderline night, worth a look to the north.

Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.

Best time to look up: 6:00 PM–9:00 PM CST

15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window

Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun

Aurora Probability

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Interactive Aurora Globe

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Sunspots

Current sunspot number: 102

SOHO

Coronal Mass Ejections

Space Weather Prediction Center

Aurora Photography by Todd Salat

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Anchorage Lights - aurora borealis photograph taken at Anchorage, Alaska by Todd Salat

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Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)

Bt: 3.6 nT
Bx: -1.4 nT
By: -3.3 nT
Bz: 0.45 nT
Clock Angle θ: 7.2°
Cone Angle φ: 246.6°
Speed: 565 km/s
Density: 3.5 p/cc

Real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinates - the values the prediction model actually runs on.

IMF Detail (GSE) & Source

Bx: -1.4 nT
By: -3 nT
Bz: -1.3 nT
θ Angle: -21.1°
φ Angle: 244.7°
Satellite: SOLAR-1
Data Quality: Good
Reading Time: Oct 14, 3:29 AM CST

The same magnetic field reading in geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) coordinates, plus which satellite it came from and how fresh it is.

Geomagnetic Indices

Kp (now): 0.33
Dst: -11 nT
HPI: 6 GW
Sunspot Number: 102

Headline storm-activity indices - Kp (planetary), Dst (ring current), HPI (hemispheric power), and today's sunspot count.

Aurora Model

Ovation Value: 1
Ovation Label: None
Model Data Time: Oct 14, 4:10 AM CST
Ovation Data: Live

NOAA's OVATION Prime output - how far south the aurora oval is likely to extend right now.

Scores & Ratings

Aurora Visibility: 0 · Poor
Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon): 0 · Poor
Prediction Score: 2 · Little to None

This page's three scores side by side - raw activity, moon/cloud-adjusted visibility, and the forecast.

Sky & Location

Cloud Cover: 0% · Clear
Clouds, Next Dark Window: 40% · Few Clouds · ×0.85
Aurora Visibility Tonight: 14 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 16 × cloud 0.85)
Solar Elevation: -34.1° · Dark Night
Moon Phase: Waxing Crescent
Moon Illumination: 10%
Moon Altitude: -62.9° · Below Horizon
Latitude: 53.20008
Longitude: -105.76772
Geomagnetic Latitude: 60.6°
Horizon Threshold: Kp 2
Overhead Threshold: Kp 4

Local sky and moon conditions - what actually turns the raw aurora score into a real visibility score for this spot.

Prediction Model Inputs

Bz Persistence (60min): 1.2 nT
Newell Coupling: 3588
Latitude Gate: 0.22 now · 1.00 tonight (horizon Kp 1.9)
Dynamic Pressure: 1.9 nPa
Storm Watch (CME): —
Watch Predicted Kp: —

The individual weighted inputs - Bz persistence, coupling, pressure, CME timing - that combine into the Prediction score.

Timing & Signal Strength

Timing: Now
Signal Strength: High
L1 Delay: ~44 min
Magnetic Midnight: 1:19 AM (peak hours 11:19 PM – 3:19 AM)
Best Viewing Window: 3:34 AM – 6:54 AM CST (3h 20m)

How soon a solar wind change reaches Earth, how confident the model is right now, and today's best window to actually look up.

3-Day Kp Forecast

CST	Oct 14	Oct 15	Oct 16
6:00 PM–9:00 PM	3.67	2.67	1.67
9:00 PM–12:00 AM	3.33	3.33	1.67
12:00 AM–3:00 AM	3.67	3	1.33
3:00 AM–6:00 AM	2.67	2.33	1.33
6:00 AM–9:00 AM	2.67	1.67	1.33
9:00 AM–12:00 PM	3.33	1	1.33
12:00 PM–3:00 PM	3.33	1.33	1.67
3:00 PM–6:00 PM	3.33	2.33	1.33
Max	3.67	3.33	1.67
Ap Index	18	10	5

Storm Probability

Level	Oct 14	Oct 15	Oct 16
Active	35%	20%	15%
Minor storm	25%	5%	1%
Moderate storm	10%	1%	1%
Strong-Extreme storm	1%	1%	1%

NOAA SWPC's official 3-day Kp forecast and geomagnetic storm probability - an independent second opinion alongside this page's own real-time model.

Planetary K-index

Oct 11

Oct 12

Oct 13

Now

Oct 14

Oct 15

Oct 16

Quiet (Kp 0-3) Unsettled (Kp 4) Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) Strong+ Storm (Kp 7-9) Forecast (hatched)

Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-0.2 nT now

Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.

Total IMF Field Bt3.7 nT now

Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.

Global Storm Trend15 global now

Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.

Dst History-11 nT now

Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.

Solar Wind Speed & Pressure

Speed: 544 km/s now Pressure: 1.7 nPa now

Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.

24-hour trend charts for the values above, so you can see whether conditions are building or fading.

Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.

Aurora Forecasts for Nearby Cities

Checking conditions somewhere else tonight? These are the closest cities with their own northern lights prediction.

Saskatoon 133 km
La Ronge 214 km
Flin Flon 308 km
Regina 316 km
Medicine Hat 488 km
Edmonton 512 km
Fort McMurray 531 km
Brandon 548 km

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Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Prince Albert, Saskatchewan

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