Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Uppsala, Uppsala County, Sweden

Aurora Visibility0Poor

Kp: 1 | Bz: 2.9

Prediction15Little to None

Current Conditions (as of 13:18 CEST): Little to no aurora activity in Uppsala - sun is above the horizon. Check back after sunset. Overcast skies will likely block any aurora view. Tonight's viewing window looks clear (~13% cloud).

Predicted Outlook (18:28 – 06:48 CEST): Little to no aurora activity expected tonight. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet. Factoring in ~13% forecast cloud, viewing in Uppsala looks Poor (15/100).

Best Viewing Window: 18:28 – 06:48 CEST (12h 20m) · peak hours typically 21:38 – 01:38

Bz 2.9 nT Aurora None Daytime Overcast · 100% Tonight 15 · Poor · Clear 13% Prediction 15 · Little to None Waxing Crescent 10% Color Key

Space Weather Now

Kp (now)

Forecast Kp (today)

3.67

Bz (nT)

2.9

HPI

9 Minimal · 18 GW

Dst (nT)

-12

Density (p/cc)

3.7

Speed (km/s)

548

Sky / Darkness

Overcast Daytime

Sunspot Number

102

Timing: Tonight · Signal Strength: High

Webcam

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3-Day Forecast for Uppsala, Uppsala County, Sweden

Tonight's forecast peaks at Kp 3.3, right around the roughly Kp 3 that Uppsala needs - a borderline night, worth a look if skies are dark and clear to the north.

Oct 14

Global: Active Uppsala: Borderline

Kp 3.3 is right around the roughly Kp 3 Uppsala needs - a borderline night, worth a look to the north.

Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.

Best time to look up: 17:00–20:00 CEST

35% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3.33 during viewing window

Oct 15

Global: Quiet Uppsala: Not expected

Kp 2.3 is short of the roughly Kp 3 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Uppsala.

Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.

Best time to look up: 23:00–02:00 CEST

20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.33 during viewing window

Oct 16

Global: Quiet Uppsala: Not expected

Kp 1.7 is short of the roughly Kp 3 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Uppsala.

Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.

Best time to look up: 20:00–23:00 CEST

15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window

Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun

Aurora Probability

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Sunspots

Current sunspot number: 102

SOHO

Coronal Mass Ejections

Space Weather Prediction Center

Aurora Photography by Todd Salat

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Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)

Bt: 3.7 nT
Bx: -1.6 nT
By: -1.8 nT
Bz: 2.9 nT
Clock Angle θ: 50.9°
Cone Angle φ: 228.4°
Speed: 548 km/s
Density: 3.7 p/cc

Real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinates - the values the prediction model actually runs on.

IMF Detail (GSE) & Source

Bx: -1.6 nT
By: -3 nT
Bz: 1.6 nT
θ Angle: 24.9°
φ Angle: 242.6°
Satellite: SOLAR-1
Data Quality: Good
Reading Time: Oct 14, 13:14 CEST

The same magnetic field reading in geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) coordinates, plus which satellite it came from and how fresh it is.

Geomagnetic Indices

Kp (now): 1
Dst: -12 nT
HPI: 9 GW
Sunspot Number: 102

Headline storm-activity indices - Kp (planetary), Dst (ring current), HPI (hemispheric power), and today's sunspot count.

Aurora Model

Ovation Value: 0
Ovation Label: None
Model Data Time: Oct 14, 13:54 CEST
Ovation Data: Live

NOAA's OVATION Prime output - how far south the aurora oval is likely to extend right now.

Scores & Ratings

Aurora Visibility: 0 · Poor
Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon): 0 · Poor
Prediction Score: 15 · Little to None

This page's three scores side by side - raw activity, moon/cloud-adjusted visibility, and the forecast.

Sky & Location

Cloud Cover: 100% · Overcast
Clouds, Next Dark Window: 13% · Clear · ×1.00
Aurora Visibility Tonight: 15 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 15 × cloud 1.00)
Solar Elevation: 21.4° · Daytime
Moon Phase: Waxing Crescent
Moon Illumination: 10%
Moon Altitude: -0.2° · Below Horizon
Latitude: 59.85882
Longitude: 17.63889
Geomagnetic Latitude: 58.5°
Horizon Threshold: Kp 3
Overhead Threshold: Kp 5

Local sky and moon conditions - what actually turns the raw aurora score into a real visibility score for this spot.

Prediction Model Inputs

Bz Persistence (60min): 1.8 nT
Newell Coupling: 340
Latitude Gate: 0.03 now · 1.00 tonight (horizon Kp 2.9)
Dynamic Pressure: 1.9 nPa
Storm Watch (CME): —
Watch Predicted Kp: —

The individual weighted inputs - Bz persistence, coupling, pressure, CME timing - that combine into the Prediction score.

Timing & Signal Strength

Timing: Tonight
Signal Strength: High
L1 Delay: ~46 min
Magnetic Midnight: 23:38 (peak hours 21:38 – 01:38)
Best Viewing Window: 18:28 – 06:48 CEST (12h 20m)

How soon a solar wind change reaches Earth, how confident the model is right now, and today's best window to actually look up.

3-Day Kp Forecast

CEST	Oct 14	Oct 15	Oct 16
02:00–05:00	3.67	2.67	1.67
05:00–08:00	3.33	3.33	1.67
08:00–11:00	3.67	3	1.33
11:00–14:00	2.67	2.33	1.33
14:00–17:00	2.67	1.67	1.33
17:00–20:00	3.33	1	1.33
20:00–23:00	3.33	1.33	1.67
23:00–02:00	3.33	2.33	1.33
Max	3.67	3.33	1.67
Ap Index	18	10	5

Storm Probability

Level	Oct 14	Oct 15	Oct 16
Active	35%	20%	15%
Minor storm	25%	5%	1%
Moderate storm	10%	1%	1%
Strong-Extreme storm	1%	1%	1%

NOAA SWPC's official 3-day Kp forecast and geomagnetic storm probability - an independent second opinion alongside this page's own real-time model.

Planetary K-index

Oct 11

Oct 12

Oct 13

Oct 14

Now

Oct 15

Oct 16

Quiet (Kp 0-3) Unsettled (Kp 4) Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) Strong+ Storm (Kp 7-9) Forecast (hatched)

Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz2.9 nT now

Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.

Total IMF Field Bt3.8 nT now

Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.

Global Storm Trend13 global now

Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.

Dst History-12 nT now

Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.

Solar Wind Speed & Pressure

Speed: 549 km/s now Pressure: 1.9 nPa now

Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.

24-hour trend charts for the values above, so you can see whether conditions are building or fading.

Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.

Aurora Forecasts for Nearby Cities

Checking conditions somewhere else tonight? These are the closest cities with their own northern lights prediction.

Stockholm 64 km
Turku 264 km
Tampere 381 km
Oslo 384 km
Espoo 391 km
Östersund 402 km
Gothenburg 405 km
Helsinki 407 km

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Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Uppsala, Uppsala County, Sweden

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