Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Brainerd, Minnesota
Did you mean: Brainerd, Saint Mary Parish, Jamaica?
Kp: 0.33 | Bz: 1.12
Best Viewing Window: 7:06 PM – 7:06 AM CDT (12h 0m) · peak hours typically 11:21 PM – 3:21 AM
Best Viewing Window:
7:06 PM – 7:06 AM CDT Space Weather Now
Timing: Tonight · Signal Strength: High
3-Day Forecast for Brainerd, Minnesota
Oct 14
Kp 3.3 is short of the roughly Kp 5 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Brainerd.
Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.
Best time to look up: 10:00 PM–1:00 AM CDT
20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3.33 during viewing window
Oct 15
Kp 1.7 is short of the roughly Kp 5 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Brainerd.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 7:00 PM–10:00 PM CDT
15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window
Oct 16
Global: This night's forecast isn't in NOAA's 3-day window yet - check back closer to the date.
This night's forecast isn't available yet - check back closer to the date.
Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun
Interactive Aurora Globe
Satellite View
Sunspots
Current sunspot number: 102
Coronal Mass Ejections
Aurora Photography by Todd Salat
Original prints from Todd Salat's collection.
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Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)
- Bt
- 4.5 nT
- Bx
- 3.9 nT
- By
- 2 nT
- Bz
- 1.12 nT
- Clock Angle θ
- 14.5°
- Cone Angle φ
- 27.4°
- Speed
- 512 km/s
- Density
- 3.3 p/cc
IMF Detail (GSE) & Source
- Bx
- 3.9 nT
- By
- 1.4 nT
- Bz
- 1.9 nT
- θ Angle
- 24.6°
- φ Angle
- 19.2°
- Satellite
- SOLAR-1
- Data Quality
- Good
- Reading Time
- Oct 14, 10:16 AM CDT
Geomagnetic Indices
- Kp (now)
- 0.33
- Dst
- -8 nT
- HPI
- 7 GW
- Sunspot Number
- 102
Aurora Model
- Ovation Value
- 0
- Ovation Label
- None
- Model Data Time
- Oct 14, 11:04 AM CDT
- Ovation Data
- Live
Scores & Ratings
- Aurora Visibility
- 0 · Poor
- Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon)
- 0 · Poor
- Prediction Score
- 5 · Little to None
Sky & Location
- Cloud Cover
- 65% · Scattered
- Clouds, Next Dark Window
- 100% · Overcast · ×0.05
- Aurora Visibility Tonight
- 0 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 5 × cloud 0.05)
- Solar Elevation
- 24.6° · Daytime
- Moon Phase
- Waxing Crescent
- Moon Illumination
- 12%
- Moon Altitude
- -16.2° · Below Horizon
- Latitude
- 46.35802
- Longitude
- -94.20083
- Geomagnetic Latitude
- 54.9°
- Horizon Threshold
- Kp 5
- Overhead Threshold
- Kp 7
Prediction Model Inputs
- Bz Persistence (60min)
- 1.4 nT
- Newell Coupling
- 1812
- Latitude Gate
- 0.00 now · 0.32 tonight (horizon Kp 4.7)
- Dynamic Pressure
- 1.4 nPa
- Storm Watch (CME)
- —
- Watch Predicted Kp
- —
Timing & Signal Strength
- Timing
- Tonight
- Signal Strength
- High
- L1 Delay
- ~49 min
- Magnetic Midnight
- 1:21 AM (peak hours 11:21 PM – 3:21 AM)
- Best Viewing Window
- 7:06 PM – 7:06 AM CDT (12h 0m)
3-Day Kp Forecast
| CDT | Oct 14 | Oct 15 | Oct 16 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:00 PM–10:00 PM | 3.67 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| 10:00 PM–1:00 AM | 3.33 | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| 1:00 AM–4:00 AM | 3.67 | 3 | 1.33 |
| 4:00 AM–7:00 AM | 2.67 | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| 7:00 AM–10:00 AM | 2.67 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 10:00 AM–1:00 PM | 3.33 | 1 | 1.33 |
| 1:00 PM–4:00 PM | 3.33 | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| 4:00 PM–7:00 PM | 3.33 | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| Max | 3.67 | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| Ap Index | 18 | 10 | 5 |
Storm Probability
| Level | Oct 14 | Oct 15 | Oct 16 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 5% | 1% |
| Moderate storm | 10% | 1% | 1% |
| Strong-Extreme storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Planetary K-index
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-1 nT now
Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.
Total IMF Field Bt4.2 nT now
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.
Global Storm Trend14 global now
Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.
Dst History-8 nT now
Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.
Solar Wind Speed & Pressure
Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.
Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.
Aurora Forecasts for Nearby Cities
Checking conditions somewhere else tonight? These are the closest cities with their own northern lights prediction.
- St. Cloud 55 mi
- Bemidji 83 mi
- Superior 103 mi
- Duluth 104 mi
- Minneapolis 105 mi
- Saint Paul 111 mi
- Moorhead 127 mi
- Fargo 128 mi
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