Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Dawson Creek, British Columbia
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Kp: 1.67 | Bz: -1.96
Best Viewing Window: 6:43 PM – 6:58 AM MST (12h 15m) · peak hours typically 11:33 PM – 3:33 AM
Best Viewing Window:
6:43 PM – 6:58 AM MST Space Weather Now
Timing: Tonight · Signal Strength: High
3-Day Forecast for Dawson Creek, British Columbia
Oct 14
Kp 3.3 clears the roughly Kp 2 Dawson Creek needs - aurora possible low on the northern horizon under dark, clear skies.
Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.
Best time to look up: 8:00 PM–11:00 PM MST
25% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3.33 during viewing window
Oct 15
Kp 2.7 clears the roughly Kp 2 Dawson Creek needs - aurora possible low on the northern horizon under dark, clear skies.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 8:00 PM–11:00 PM MST
20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.67 during viewing window
Oct 16
Kp 1.7 is right around the roughly Kp 2 Dawson Creek needs - a borderline night, worth a look to the north.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 8:00 PM–11:00 PM MST
15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window
Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun
Interactive Aurora Globe
Satellite View
Sunspots
Current sunspot number: 102
Coronal Mass Ejections
Aurora Photography by Todd Salat
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Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)
- Bt
- 5.9 nT
- Bx
- -2.2 nT
- By
- -5 nT
- Bz
- -1.96 nT
- Clock Angle θ
- -19.5°
- Cone Angle φ
- 246.2°
- Speed
- 539 km/s
- Density
- 5.7 p/cc
IMF Detail (GSE) & Source
- Bx
- -2.2 nT
- By
- -4.5 nT
- Bz
- -3 nT
- θ Angle
- -30.8°
- φ Angle
- 243.7°
- Satellite
- SOLAR-1
- Data Quality
- Good
- Reading Time
- Oct 14, 4:22 PM MST
Geomagnetic Indices
- Kp (now)
- 1.67
- Dst
- -2 nT
- HPI
- 14 GW
- Sunspot Number
- 102
Aurora Model
- Ovation Value
- 0
- Ovation Label
- None
- Model Data Time
- Oct 14, 5:06 PM MST
- Ovation Data
- Live
Scores & Ratings
- Aurora Visibility
- 0 · Poor
- Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon)
- 0 · Poor
- Prediction Score
- 23 · Little to None
Sky & Location
- Cloud Cover
- 25% · Clear
- Clouds, Next Dark Window
- 44% · Few Clouds · ×0.85
- Aurora Visibility Tonight
- 20 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 23 × cloud 0.85)
- Solar Elevation
- 11.2° · Daytime
- Moon Phase
- Waxing Crescent
- Moon Illumination
- 14%
- Moon Altitude
- 6.9° · Up
- Latitude
- 55.75984
- Longitude
- -120.2403
- Geomagnetic Latitude
- 61.3°
- Horizon Threshold
- Kp 2
- Overhead Threshold
- Kp 4
Prediction Model Inputs
- Bz Persistence (60min)
- 0.5 nT
- Newell Coupling
- 8606
- Latitude Gate
- 1.00 now · 1.00 tonight (horizon Kp 1.6)
- Dynamic Pressure
- 2.8 nPa
- Storm Watch (CME)
- —
- Watch Predicted Kp
- —
Timing & Signal Strength
- Timing
- Tonight
- Signal Strength
- High
- L1 Delay
- ~46 min
- Magnetic Midnight
- 1:33 AM (peak hours 11:33 PM – 3:33 AM)
- Best Viewing Window
- 6:43 PM – 6:58 AM MST (12h 15m)
3-Day Kp Forecast
| MST | Oct 15 | Oct 16 | Oct 17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5:00 PM–8:00 PM | 2.67 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| 8:00 PM–11:00 PM | 3.33 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| 11:00 PM–2:00 AM | 3 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 2:00 AM–5:00 AM | 2.33 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 5:00 AM–8:00 AM | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 8:00 AM–11:00 AM | 1 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 11:00 AM–2:00 PM | 1.33 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 2:00 PM–5:00 PM | 2.33 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Max | 3.33 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Ap Index | 10 | 8 | 5 |
Storm Probability
| Level | Oct 15 | Oct 16 | Oct 17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| Moderate storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Strong-Extreme storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Planetary K-index
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-1.4 nT now
Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.
Total IMF Field Bt6.1 nT now
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.
Global Storm Trend25 global now
Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.
Dst History-2 nT now
Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.
Solar Wind Speed & Pressure
Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.
Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.
Aurora Forecasts for Nearby Cities
Checking conditions somewhere else tonight? These are the closest cities with their own northern lights prediction.
- Fort St. John 66 km
- Grande Prairie 112 km
- Fort Nelson 369 km
- Edmonton 500 km
- Fort McMurray 557 km
- Kamloops 566 km
- Red Deer 572 km
- Hay River 619 km
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