Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Escanaba Lake Hemlocks State Natural Area, Wisconsin
Kp: 0.67 | Bz: -0.5
Best Viewing Window: 4:44 AM – 6:49 AM CDT (2h 5m) · peak hours typically 10:59 PM – 2:59 AM
Best Viewing Window:
4:44 AM – 6:49 AM CDT Space Weather Now
Timing: Now · Signal Strength: High
Webcam
No aurora cams nearby. Center on nearest camera (405 mi away).
Browse other webcams on Windy3-Day Forecast for Escanaba Lake Hemlocks State Natural Area, Wisconsin
Oct 14
Kp 2.3 is short of the roughly Kp 5 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Escanaba Lake Hemlocks State Natural Area.
Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.
Best time to look up: 4:00 AM–7:00 AM CDT
25% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.33 during viewing window
Oct 15
Kp 2.7 is short of the roughly Kp 5 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Escanaba Lake Hemlocks State Natural Area.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 10:00 PM–1:00 AM CDT
20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.67 during viewing window
Oct 16
Kp 1.7 is short of the roughly Kp 5 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Escanaba Lake Hemlocks State Natural Area.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 7:00 PM–10:00 PM CDT
15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window
Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun
Interactive Aurora Globe
Satellite View
Sunspots
Current sunspot number: 124
Coronal Mass Ejections
Aurora Photography by Todd Salat
Original prints from Todd Salat's collection.
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Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)
- Bt
- 5.1 nT
- Bx
- 4.7 nT
- By
- 1.7 nT
- Bz
- -0.5 nT
- Clock Angle θ
- -5.6°
- Cone Angle φ
- 19.4°
- Speed
- 468 km/s
- Density
- 2.1 p/cc
IMF Detail (GSE) & Source
- Bx
- 4.7 nT
- By
- 1.7 nT
- Bz
- 0.5 nT
- θ Angle
- 5.5°
- φ Angle
- 19.5°
- Satellite
- SOLAR-1
- Data Quality
- Good
- Reading Time
- Oct 15, 4:38 AM CDT
Geomagnetic Indices
- Kp (now)
- 0.67
- Dst
- -11 nT
- HPI
- 12 GW
- Sunspot Number
- 124
Aurora Model
- Ovation Value
- 0
- Ovation Label
- None
- Model Data Time
- Oct 15, 5:32 AM CDT
- Ovation Data
- Live
Scores & Ratings
- Aurora Visibility
- 0 · Poor
- Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon)
- 0 · Poor
- Prediction Score
- 0 · Little to None
Sky & Location
- Cloud Cover
- 100% · Overcast
- Clouds, Next Dark Window
- 100% · Overcast · ×0.05
- Aurora Visibility Tonight
- 0 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 0 × cloud 0.05)
- Solar Elevation
- -26.7° · Dark Night
- Moon Phase
- Waxing Crescent
- Moon Illumination
- 17%
- Moon Altitude
- -71.1° · Below Horizon
- Latitude
- 46.05861
- Longitude
- -89.57556
- Geomagnetic Latitude
- 54.9°
- Horizon Threshold
- Kp 5
- Overhead Threshold
- Kp 7
Prediction Model Inputs
- Bz Persistence (60min)
- -1.4 nT
- Newell Coupling
- 5951
- Latitude Gate
- 0.00 now · 0.00 tonight (horizon Kp 4.7)
- Dynamic Pressure
- 0.8 nPa
- Storm Watch (CME)
- —
- Watch Predicted Kp
- —
Timing & Signal Strength
- Timing
- Now
- Signal Strength
- High
- L1 Delay
- ~53 min
- Magnetic Midnight
- 12:59 AM (peak hours 10:59 PM – 2:59 AM)
- Best Viewing Window
- 4:44 AM – 6:49 AM CDT (2h 5m)
3-Day Kp Forecast
| CDT | Oct 15 | Oct 16 | Oct 17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:00 PM–10:00 PM | 2.67 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| 10:00 PM–1:00 AM | 3.33 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| 1:00 AM–4:00 AM | 3 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 4:00 AM–7:00 AM | 2.33 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 7:00 AM–10:00 AM | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 10:00 AM–1:00 PM | 1 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 1:00 PM–4:00 PM | 1.33 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 4:00 PM–7:00 PM | 2.33 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Max | 3.33 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Ap Index | 10 | 8 | 5 |
Storm Probability
| Level | Oct 15 | Oct 16 | Oct 17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| Moderate storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Strong-Extreme storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Planetary K-index
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-2.4 nT now
Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.
Total IMF Field Bt5.2 nT now
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.
Global Storm Trend28 global now
Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.
Dst History-11 nT now
Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.
Solar Wind Speed & Pressure
Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.
Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.
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