Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Fairbanks, Alaska

CME Alert: NOAA has issued a G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Watch for today (Kp 6 expected). A CME or fast solar wind stream is expected to reach Earth. Watch for a storm.

Aurora Visibility0Poor

Kp: 3 | Bz: -5.77

Prediction49Weak Activity

Current Conditions: Weak aurora activity in Fairbanks - approaching nautical twilight. Sky darkening, faint aurora may be visible. Overcast skies will likely block any aurora view.

Predicted Outlook: Weak aurora activity tonight. Faint auroras possible from high-latitude locations under dark skies.

Best Viewing Window: 10:23 PM – 5:28 AM AKDT (7h 5m)

Bz -5.77 nT Aurora Nearby Civil Twilight Overcast · 100% Prediction 49 · Weak Activity Waning Gibbous 98% Color Key

Good Viewing Locations Nearby Ester Dome 10 mi Chena Lakes Recreation Area 17 mi Cleary Summit 20 mi Murphy Dome 27 mi Chena Hot Springs Road 57 mi

Space Weather Now

Kp (now)

Forecast Kp (today)

5.67

Bz (nT)

-5.77

HPI

10 Low

Dst (nT)

-35

Density (p/cc)

13.2

Speed (km/s)

349

Sky / Darkness

Overcast Civil Twilight

Sunspot Number

Timing: Tonight · Confidence: High

Webcam

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3-Day Forecast for Fairbanks, Alaska

Tonight's forecast peaks at Kp 4.7, and Fairbanks needs about Kp 1 for the aurora to clear the northern horizon - so this is a promising night. It may even appear high overhead rather than just low on the northern horizon.

Aug 28

Active

NOAA has issued a watch for this night (see below) - aurora may be visible at higher latitudes.

CME Watch: G2 (Moderate) · Kp 6 expected

Best time to look up: 10:00 PM–1:00 AM AKDT

5% chance of elevated activity · Kp 4.67 during viewing window, up to Kp 6 depending on CME timing

Aug 29

Active

Some activity possible - aurora may be visible at higher latitudes.

Best time to look up: 10:00 PM–1:00 AM AKDT

40% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3.67 during viewing window

Aug 30

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Best time to look up: 10:00 PM–1:00 AM AKDT

10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window

Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun

Aurora Probability

LowHigh

Aurora Globe

Full-size Aurora Globe

Satellite View

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National Weather Service

Sunspots

Current sunspot number: 92

SOHO

Coronal Mass Ejections

Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)

Bt: 10.8 nT
Bx: -4.7 nT
By: -7.7 nT
Bz: -5.77 nT
Clock Angle θ: -32.4°
Cone Angle φ: 238.8°
Speed: 349 km/s
Density: 13.2 p/cc

Real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinates - the values the prediction model actually runs on.

IMF Detail (GSE) & Source

Bx: -4.7 nT
By: -4.7 nT
Bz: -8.4 nT
θ Angle: -51.5°
φ Angle: 225.4°
Satellite: SOLAR-1
Data Quality: Good
Reading Time: Aug 28, 9:54 PM AKDT

The same magnetic field reading in geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) coordinates, plus which satellite it came from and how fresh it is.

Geomagnetic Indices

Kp (now): 3
Dst: -35 nT
HPI: 10 GW
Sunspot Number: 92

Headline storm-activity indices - Kp (planetary), Dst (ring current), HPI (hemispheric power), and today's sunspot count.

Aurora Model

Ovation Value: 33
Ovation Label: Nearby
Model Data Time: Aug 28, 11:00 PM AKDT
Ovation Data: Live

NOAA's OVATION Prime output - how far south the aurora oval is likely to extend right now.

Scores & Ratings

Aurora Visibility: 0 · Poor
Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon): 0 · Poor
Prediction Score: 49 · Weak Activity

This page's three scores side by side - raw activity, moon/cloud-adjusted visibility, and the forecast.

Sky & Location

Cloud Cover: 100% · Overcast
Solar Elevation: -4.2° · Civil Twilight
Moon Phase: Waning Gibbous
Moon Illumination: 98%
Moon Altitude: 6.3° · Up
Latitude: 64.83778
Longitude: -147.71638
Geomagnetic Latitude: 65.6°
Horizon Threshold: Kp 1
Overhead Threshold: Kp 2

Local sky and moon conditions - what actually turns the raw aurora score into a real visibility score for this spot.

Prediction Model Inputs

Bz Persistence (60min): -7.7 nT
Newell Coupling: 8914
Dynamic Pressure: 2.7 nPa
Storm Watch (CME): ~0h · G2 (Moderate)
Watch Predicted Kp: 6

The individual weighted inputs - Bz persistence, coupling, pressure, CME timing - that combine into the Prediction score.

Timing & Confidence

Timing: Tonight
Confidence: High
L1 Delay: ~4298 min
Best Viewing Window: 10:23 PM – 5:28 AM AKDT (7h 5m)

How soon a solar wind change reaches Earth, how confident the model is right now, and today's best window to actually look up.

3-Day Kp Forecast

AKDT	Aug 29	Aug 30	Aug 31
4:00 PM–7:00 PM	5.67	2.67	1.67
7:00 PM–10:00 PM	5.67	3.67	2
10:00 PM–1:00 AM	4.67	3.67	1.67
1:00 AM–4:00 AM	4.67	2.67	1.67
4:00 AM–7:00 AM	3.67	1.67	1
7:00 AM–10:00 AM	3.67	1	1
10:00 AM–1:00 PM	2.67	1.67	0.67
1:00 PM–4:00 PM	2.67	2.67	2
Max	5.67	3.67	2
Ap Index	35	12	5

Storm Probability

Level	Aug 29	Aug 30	Aug 31
Active	5%	40%	10%
Minor storm	30%	25%	1%
Moderate storm	40%	10%	1%
Strong-Extreme storm	25%	1%	1%

NOAA SWPC's official 3-day Kp forecast and geomagnetic storm probability - an independent second opinion alongside this page's own real-time model.

Planetary K-index

Aug 25

Aug 26

Aug 27

Aug 28

Now

Aug 29

Aug 30

Aug 31

Quiet (Kp 0-3) Unsettled (Kp 4) Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) Strong+ Storm (Kp 7-9) Forecast (hatched)

Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-6.8 nT now

Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.

Total IMF Field Bt10.4 nT now

Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.

Storm Trend56 now

Prediction score (0-100) over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.

Dst History-35 nT now

Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.

Solar Wind Speed & Pressure

Speed: 352 km/s now Pressure: 3.2 nPa now

Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.

24-hour trend charts for the values above, so you can see whether conditions are building or fading.

Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.

Related Northern Lights Pages

Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Fairbanks, Alaska

Space Weather Now

Webcam