Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Fredericton, New Brunswick
Did you mean: Fredericton Junction, New Brunswick, Canada?
Kp: 1 | Bz: 2.94
Best Viewing Window: 7:13 PM – 7:18 AM ADT (12h 5m) · peak hours typically 11:08 PM – 3:08 AM
Best Viewing Window:
7:13 PM – 7:18 AM ADT Space Weather Now
Timing: Tonight · Signal Strength: High
3-Day Forecast for Fredericton, New Brunswick
Oct 15
Kp 2.7 is short of the roughly Kp 5 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Fredericton.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 12:00 AM–3:00 AM ADT
20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.67 during viewing window
Oct 16
Kp 2.7 is short of the roughly Kp 5 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Fredericton.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 6:00 PM–9:00 PM ADT
15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.67 during viewing window
Oct 17
Kp 1.7 is short of the roughly Kp 5 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Fredericton.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 6:00 PM–9:00 PM ADT
15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window
Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun
Interactive Aurora Globe
Satellite View
Sunspots
Current sunspot number: 124
Coronal Mass Ejections
Aurora Photography by Todd Salat
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Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)
- Bt
- 5.2 nT
- Bx
- 3.7 nT
- By
- -2 nT
- Bz
- 2.94 nT
- Clock Angle θ
- 35.1°
- Cone Angle φ
- 331.8°
- Speed
- 463 km/s
- Density
- 3.6 p/cc
IMF Detail (GSE) & Source
- Bx
- 3.7 nT
- By
- -3.1 nT
- Bz
- 1.7 nT
- θ Angle
- 19.2°
- φ Angle
- 319.4°
- Satellite
- SOLAR-1
- Data Quality
- Good
- Reading Time
- Oct 15, 11:00 AM ADT
Geomagnetic Indices
- Kp (now)
- 1
- Dst
- -17 nT
- HPI
- 19 GW
- Sunspot Number
- 124
Aurora Model
- Ovation Value
- 0
- Ovation Label
- None
- Model Data Time
- Oct 15, 11:47 AM ADT
- Ovation Data
- Live
Scores & Ratings
- Aurora Visibility
- 0 · Poor
- Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon)
- 0 · Poor
- Prediction Score
- 1 · Little to None
Sky & Location
- Cloud Cover
- 9% · Clear
- Clouds, Next Dark Window
- 57% · Scattered · ×0.50
- Aurora Visibility Tonight
- 1 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 1 × cloud 0.50)
- Solar Elevation
- 28.2° · Daytime
- Moon Phase
- Waxing Crescent
- Moon Illumination
- 19%
- Moon Altitude
- -19.2° · Below Horizon
- Latitude
- 45.94541
- Longitude
- -66.66558
- Geomagnetic Latitude
- 55.2°
- Horizon Threshold
- Kp 5
- Overhead Threshold
- Kp 6
Prediction Model Inputs
- Bz Persistence (60min)
- -1.2 nT
- Newell Coupling
- 412
- Latitude Gate
- 0.00 now · 0.07 tonight (horizon Kp 4.5)
- Dynamic Pressure
- 1.3 nPa
- Storm Watch (CME)
- —
- Watch Predicted Kp
- —
Timing & Signal Strength
- Timing
- Tonight
- Signal Strength
- High
- L1 Delay
- ~54 min
- Magnetic Midnight
- 1:08 AM (peak hours 11:08 PM – 3:08 AM)
- Best Viewing Window
- 7:13 PM – 7:18 AM ADT (12h 5m)
3-Day Kp Forecast
| ADT | Oct 15 | Oct 16 | Oct 17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9:00 PM–12:00 AM | 2.67 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| 12:00 AM–3:00 AM | 3.33 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| 3:00 AM–6:00 AM | 3 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 6:00 AM–9:00 AM | 2.33 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 9:00 AM–12:00 PM | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 12:00 PM–3:00 PM | 1 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 3:00 PM–6:00 PM | 1.33 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 6:00 PM–9:00 PM | 2.33 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Max | 3.33 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Ap Index | 10 | 8 | 5 |
Storm Probability
| Level | Oct 15 | Oct 16 | Oct 17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| Moderate storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Strong-Extreme storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Planetary K-index
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz3.3 nT now
Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.
Total IMF Field Bt5.2 nT now
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.
Global Storm Trend25 global now
Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.
Dst History-17 nT now
Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.
Solar Wind Speed & Pressure
Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.
Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.
Aurora Forecasts for Nearby Cities
Checking conditions somewhere else tonight? These are the closest cities with their own northern lights prediction.
- Presque Isle 132 km
- Caribou 145 km
- Moncton 145 km
- Bangor 208 km
- Charlottetown 275 km
- Halifax 282 km
- Quebec City 362 km
- Sherbrooke 411 km
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