Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Hay River, Northwest Territories

Aurora Visibility2Poor

Kp: 2.33 | Bz: -5.68

Prediction39Weak Activity

Current Conditions: Weak aurora activity in Hay River. Overcast skies will likely block any aurora view.

Predicted Outlook: Weak aurora activity currently. Faint auroras possible from high-latitude locations under dark skies.

Best Viewing Window: 1:48 AM – 5:48 AM MDT (4h 0m)

Bz -5.68 nT Aurora Nearby Dark Night Overcast · 98% Prediction 39 · Weak Activity Waning Gibbous 94% Color Key

Space Weather Now

Kp (now)

2.33

Forecast Kp (today)

3.67

Bz (nT)

-5.68

HPI

8 Minimal

Dst (nT)

-34

Density (p/cc)

10.1

Speed (km/s)

409

Sky / Darkness

Overcast Dark Night

Sunspot Number

Timing: Now · Confidence: High

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3-Day Forecast for Hay River, Northwest Territories

Tonight's forecast peaks at Kp 3.7, and Hay River needs about Kp 1 for the aurora to clear the northern horizon - so this is a promising night. It may even appear high overhead rather than just low on the northern horizon.

Aug 30

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Best time to look up: 9:00 PM–12:00 AM MDT

10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2 during viewing window

Aug 31

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Best time to look up: 12:00 AM–3:00 AM MDT

10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window

Sep 01

Forecast Pending

This night's forecast isn't in NOAA's 3-day window yet - check back closer to the date.

This night's forecast isn't available yet - check back closer to the date.

Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun

Aurora Probability

LowHigh

Interactive Aurora Globe

Full-size Aurora Globe

Satellite View

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National Weather Service

Sunspots

Current sunspot number: 73

SOHO

Coronal Mass Ejections

Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)

Bt: 9 nT
Bx: -3.3 nT
By: 4.3 nT
Bz: -5.68 nT
Clock Angle θ: -42.3°
Cone Angle φ: 128.3°
Speed: 409 km/s
Density: 10.1 p/cc

Real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinates - the values the prediction model actually runs on.

IMF Detail (GSE) & Source

Bx: -3.3 nT
By: 6.4 nT
Bz: -2.8 nT
θ Angle: -19°
φ Angle: 116.1°
Satellite: SOLAR-1
Data Quality: Good
Reading Time: Aug 30, 1:43 AM MDT

The same magnetic field reading in geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) coordinates, plus which satellite it came from and how fresh it is.

Geomagnetic Indices

Kp (now): 2.33
Dst: -34 nT
HPI: 8 GW
Sunspot Number: 73

Headline storm-activity indices - Kp (planetary), Dst (ring current), HPI (hemispheric power), and today's sunspot count.

Aurora Model

Ovation Value: 28
Ovation Label: Nearby
Model Data Time: Aug 30, 2:39 AM MDT
Ovation Data: Live

NOAA's OVATION Prime output - how far south the aurora oval is likely to extend right now.

Scores & Ratings

Aurora Visibility: 2 · Poor
Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon): 2 · Poor
Prediction Score: 39 · Weak Activity

This page's three scores side by side - raw activity, moon/cloud-adjusted visibility, and the forecast.

Sky & Location

Cloud Cover: 98% · Overcast
Solar Elevation: -20.2° · Dark Night
Moon Phase: Waning Gibbous
Moon Illumination: 94%
Moon Altitude: 30.7° · Up
Latitude: 60.81555
Longitude: -115.79993
Geomagnetic Latitude: 66.8°
Horizon Threshold: Kp 1
Overhead Threshold: Kp 1

Local sky and moon conditions - what actually turns the raw aurora score into a real visibility score for this spot.

Prediction Model Inputs

Bz Persistence (60min): -5.1 nT
Newell Coupling: 11391
Dynamic Pressure: 2.8 nPa
Storm Watch (CME): —
Watch Predicted Kp: —

The individual weighted inputs - Bz persistence, coupling, pressure, CME timing - that combine into the Prediction score.

Timing & Confidence

Timing: Now
Confidence: High
L1 Delay: ~3667 min
Best Viewing Window: 1:48 AM – 5:48 AM MDT (4h 0m)

How soon a solar wind change reaches Earth, how confident the model is right now, and today's best window to actually look up.

3-Day Kp Forecast

MDT	Aug 30	Aug 31	Sep 01
6:00 PM–9:00 PM	2.67	1.67	1.67
9:00 PM–12:00 AM	3.67	2	1.33
12:00 AM–3:00 AM	3.67	1.67	1.67
3:00 AM–6:00 AM	2.67	1.67	1.33
6:00 AM–9:00 AM	1.67	1	1.33
9:00 AM–12:00 PM	1	1	1.33
12:00 PM–3:00 PM	1.67	0.67	1.33
3:00 PM–6:00 PM	2.67	2	1.67
Max	3.67	2	1.67
Ap Index	12	5	5

Storm Probability

Level	Aug 30	Aug 31	Sep 01
Active	40%	10%	10%
Minor storm	25%	1%	1%
Moderate storm	10%	1%	1%
Strong-Extreme storm	1%	1%	1%

NOAA SWPC's official 3-day Kp forecast and geomagnetic storm probability - an independent second opinion alongside this page's own real-time model.

Planetary K-index

Aug 27

Aug 28

Aug 29

Now

Aug 30

Aug 31

Sep 1

Quiet (Kp 0-3) Unsettled (Kp 4) Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) Strong+ Storm (Kp 7-9) Forecast (hatched)

Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-5.7 nT now

Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.

Total IMF Field Bt9 nT now

Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.

Storm Trend37 now

Prediction score (0-100) over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.

Dst History-34 nT now

Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.

Solar Wind Speed & Pressure

Speed: 401 km/s now Pressure: 2.7 nPa now

Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.

24-hour trend charts for the values above, so you can see whether conditions are building or fading.

Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.

Related Northern Lights Pages

Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Hay River, Northwest Territories

Space Weather Now

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