Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Kotzebue Water Supply Dam, Alaska
Kp: 0.33 | Bz: 1.12
Best Viewing Window: 7:23 AM – 8:53 AM AKDT (1h 30m) · peak hours typically 1:58 AM – 5:58 AM
Best Viewing Window:
7:23 AM – 8:53 AM AKDT Space Weather Now
Timing: Now · Signal Strength: High
3-Day Forecast for Kotzebue Water Supply Dam, Alaska
Oct 13
Kp 3.3 is enough to bring the aurora high overhead at Kotzebue Water Supply Dam, not just low on the northern horizon.
Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.
Best time to look up: 7:00 AM–10:00 AM AKDT
35% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3.33 during viewing window
Oct 14
Kp 3.3 is enough to bring the aurora high overhead at Kotzebue Water Supply Dam, not just low on the northern horizon.
Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.
Best time to look up: 7:00 PM–10:00 PM AKDT
20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3.33 during viewing window
Oct 15
Kp 1.7 clears the roughly Kp 1 Kotzebue Water Supply Dam needs - aurora possible low on the northern horizon under dark, clear skies.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 7:00 PM–10:00 PM AKDT
15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window
Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun
Interactive Aurora Globe
Satellite View
Sunspots
Current sunspot number: 102
Coronal Mass Ejections
Aurora Photography by Todd Salat
Original prints from Todd Salat's collection.
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Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)
- Bt
- 4.5 nT
- Bx
- 3.9 nT
- By
- 2 nT
- Bz
- 1.12 nT
- Clock Angle θ
- 14.5°
- Cone Angle φ
- 27.4°
- Speed
- 509 km/s
- Density
- 3 p/cc
IMF Detail (GSE) & Source
- Bx
- 3.9 nT
- By
- 1.4 nT
- Bz
- 1.9 nT
- θ Angle
- 24.6°
- φ Angle
- 19.2°
- Satellite
- SOLAR-1
- Data Quality
- Good
- Reading Time
- Oct 14, 7:16 AM AKDT
Geomagnetic Indices
- Kp (now)
- 0.33
- Dst
- -8 nT
- HPI
- 7 GW
- Sunspot Number
- 102
Aurora Model
- Ovation Value
- 4
- Ovation Label
- None
- Model Data Time
- Oct 14, 8:04 AM AKDT
- Ovation Data
- Live
Scores & Ratings
- Aurora Visibility
- 0 · Poor
- Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon)
- 0 · Poor
- Prediction Score
- 7 · Little to None
Sky & Location
- Cloud Cover
- 100% · Overcast
- Clouds, Next Dark Window
- 100% · Overcast · ×0.05
- Aurora Visibility Tonight
- 1 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 17 × cloud 0.05)
- Solar Elevation
- -14.7° · Astronomical Twilight
- Moon Phase
- Waxing Crescent
- Moon Illumination
- 12%
- Moon Altitude
- -46.6° · Below Horizon
- Latitude
- 66.88833
- Longitude
- -162.53833
- Geomagnetic Latitude
- 65.2°
- Horizon Threshold
- Kp 1
- Overhead Threshold
- Kp 2
Prediction Model Inputs
- Bz Persistence (60min)
- 1.4 nT
- Newell Coupling
- 1798
- Latitude Gate
- 1.00 now · 1.00 tonight (horizon Kp 0)
- Dynamic Pressure
- 1.3 nPa
- Storm Watch (CME)
- —
- Watch Predicted Kp
- —
Timing & Signal Strength
- Timing
- Now
- Signal Strength
- High
- L1 Delay
- ~49 min
- Magnetic Midnight
- 3:58 AM (peak hours 1:58 AM – 5:58 AM)
- Best Viewing Window
- 7:23 AM – 8:53 AM AKDT (1h 30m)
3-Day Kp Forecast
| AKDT | Oct 14 | Oct 15 | Oct 16 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4:00 PM–7:00 PM | 3.67 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| 7:00 PM–10:00 PM | 3.33 | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| 10:00 PM–1:00 AM | 3.67 | 3 | 1.33 |
| 1:00 AM–4:00 AM | 2.67 | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| 4:00 AM–7:00 AM | 2.67 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 7:00 AM–10:00 AM | 3.33 | 1 | 1.33 |
| 10:00 AM–1:00 PM | 3.33 | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| 1:00 PM–4:00 PM | 3.33 | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| Max | 3.67 | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| Ap Index | 18 | 10 | 5 |
Storm Probability
| Level | Oct 14 | Oct 15 | Oct 16 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 5% | 1% |
| Moderate storm | 10% | 1% | 1% |
| Strong-Extreme storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Planetary K-index
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz0.9 nT now
Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.
Total IMF Field Bt4.5 nT now
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.
Global Storm Trend14 global now
Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.
Dst History-8 nT now
Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.
Solar Wind Speed & Pressure
Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.
Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.
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