Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Saariselka, Lapland, Finland
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Kp: 2.33 | Bz: 0.28
Best Viewing Window: 18:42 – 07:17 EEST (12h 35m) · peak hours typically 21:37 – 01:37
Best Viewing Window:
18:42 – 07:17 EEST Space Weather Now
Timing: Tonight · Signal Strength: Low
3-Day Forecast for Saariselka, Lapland, Finland
Oct 13
Kp 3.7 is enough to bring the aurora high overhead at Saariselka, not just low on the northern horizon.
Global: NOAA has issued a watch for this night (see below) - moderate planetary activity, aurora across the high-latitude zone.
CME Watch: G1 (Minor) · Kp 5 expected
Best time to look up: 18:00–21:00 EEST
35% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3.67 during viewing window, up to Kp 5 depending on CME timing
Oct 14
Kp 3.7 is enough to bring the aurora high overhead at Saariselka, not just low on the northern horizon.
Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.
Best time to look up: 18:00–21:00 EEST
35% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3.67 during viewing window
Oct 15
Kp 2.3 is enough to bring the aurora high overhead at Saariselka, not just low on the northern horizon.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 00:00–03:00 EEST
20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.33 during viewing window
Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun
Interactive Aurora Globe
Satellite View
Sunspots
Current sunspot number: 93
Coronal Mass Ejections
Aurora Photography by Todd Salat
Original prints from Todd Salat's collection.
Tree of Life
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Valley of Light
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Whirled View
Turnagain Arm · 2015
Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)
- Bt
- 10 nT
- Bx
- 2.4 nT
- By
- -9.7 nT
- Bz
- 0.28 nT
- Clock Angle θ
- 1.6°
- Cone Angle φ
- 283.7°
- Speed
- 500 km/s
- Density
- 9.3 p/cc
IMF Detail (GSE) & Source
- Bx
- 2.4 nT
- By
- -8.4 nT
- Bz
- -4.8 nT
- θ Angle
- -28.5°
- φ Angle
- 285.6°
- Satellite
- SOLAR-1
- Data Quality
- Good
- Reading Time
- Oct 13, 14:19 EEST
Geomagnetic Indices
- Kp (now)
- 2.33
- Dst
- -9 nT
- HPI
- 13 GW
- Sunspot Number
- 93
Aurora Model
- Ovation Value
- 1
- Ovation Label
- None
- Model Data Time
- Oct 13, 15:14 EEST
- Ovation Data
- Live
Scores & Ratings
- Aurora Visibility
- 0 · Poor
- Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon)
- 0 · Poor
- Prediction Score
- 30 · Weak Activity
Sky & Location
- Cloud Cover
- 20% · Clear
- Clouds, Next Dark Window
- 79% · Scattered · ×0.50
- Aurora Visibility Tonight
- 15 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 30 × cloud 0.50)
- Solar Elevation
- 12° · Daytime
- Moon Phase
- Waxing Crescent
- Moon Illumination
- 5%
- Moon Altitude
- -2.3° · Below Horizon
- Latitude
- 68.41961
- Longitude
- 27.41475
- Geomagnetic Latitude
- 65.1°
- Horizon Threshold
- Kp 1
- Overhead Threshold
- Kp 2
Prediction Model Inputs
- Bz Persistence (60min)
- 3.3 nT
- Newell Coupling
- 7030
- Latitude Gate
- 1.00 now · 1.00 tonight (horizon Kp 0)
- Dynamic Pressure
- 3.9 nPa
- Storm Watch (CME)
- ~0h · G1 (Minor)
- Watch Predicted Kp
- 5
Timing & Signal Strength
- Timing
- Tonight
- Signal Strength
- Low
- L1 Delay
- ~50 min
- Magnetic Midnight
- 23:37 (peak hours 21:37 – 01:37)
- Best Viewing Window
- 18:42 – 07:17 EEST (12h 35m)
3-Day Kp Forecast
| EEST | Oct 13 | Oct 14 | Oct 15 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03:00–06:00 | 4 | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| 06:00–09:00 | 4.67 | 4 | 3.33 |
| 09:00–12:00 | 5 | 2.67 | 3 |
| 12:00–15:00 | 4.33 | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| 15:00–18:00 | 4 | 3.67 | 1.67 |
| 18:00–21:00 | 3.67 | 3.67 | 1 |
| 21:00–00:00 | 3.33 | 3.33 | 1.33 |
| 00:00–03:00 | 2.67 | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| Max | 5 | 4 | 3.33 |
| Ap Index | 28 | 20 | 10 |
Storm Probability
| Level | Oct 13 | Oct 14 | Oct 15 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 5% |
| Moderate storm | 15% | 10% | 1% |
| Strong-Extreme storm | 5% | 1% | 1% |
Planetary K-index
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-1.4 nT now
Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.
Total IMF Field Bt9.6 nT now
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.
Global Storm Trend26 global now
Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.
Dst History-9 nT now
Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.
Solar Wind Speed & Pressure
Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.
Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.
Aurora Forecasts for Nearby Cities
Checking conditions somewhere else tonight? These are the closest cities with their own northern lights prediction.
- Ivalo 27 km
- Inari 56 km
- Levi 128 km
- Kittilä 134 km
- Kirkenes 179 km
- Rovaniemi 226 km
- Alta 238 km
- Murmansk 238 km
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