Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Stanley, North Dakota

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Aurora Visibility14Poor

Kp: 2.67 | Bz: -0.99

Prediction10Little to None

Current Conditions: Little to no aurora activity in Stanley. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet. Skies are clear.

Predicted Outlook: Little to no aurora activity expected currently. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet.

Best Viewing Window: 3:53 AM – 6:33 AM CDT (2h 40m)

Bz -0.99 nT Aurora None Dark Night Clear Skies · 0% Prediction 10 · Little to None Waning Gibbous 88% Color Key

Space Weather Now

Kp (now)

2.67

Forecast Kp (today)

Bz (nT)

-0.99

HPI

4 Minimal

Dst (nT)

-15

Density (p/cc)

2.8

Speed (km/s)

423

Sky / Darkness

Clear Dark Night

Sunspot Number

Timing: Now · Confidence: Low

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3-Day Forecast for Stanley, North Dakota

Tonight's forecast peaks at Kp 3, short of the roughly Kp 4 the aurora usually needs to be seen from Stanley.

Aug 31

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Best time to look up: 1:00 AM–4:00 AM CDT

10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window

Sep 01

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Best time to look up: 10:00 PM–1:00 AM CDT

10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window

Sep 02

Forecast Pending

This night's forecast isn't in NOAA's 3-day window yet - check back closer to the date.

This night's forecast isn't available yet - check back closer to the date.

Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun

Aurora Probability

LowHigh

Interactive Aurora Globe

Full-size Aurora Globe

Satellite View

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National Weather Service

Sunspots

Current sunspot number: 74

SOHO

Coronal Mass Ejections

Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)

Bt: 4.3 nT
Bx: -4 nT
By: 1.2 nT
Bz: -0.99 nT
Clock Angle θ: -13.1°
Cone Angle φ: 162.7°
Speed: 423 km/s
Density: 2.8 p/cc

Real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinates - the values the prediction model actually runs on.

IMF Detail (GSE) & Source

Bx: -4 nT
By: 1.6 nT
Bz: -0.2 nT
θ Angle: -3.1°
φ Angle: 158.6°
Satellite: SOLAR-1
Data Quality: Good
Reading Time: Aug 31, 3:46 AM CDT

The same magnetic field reading in geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) coordinates, plus which satellite it came from and how fresh it is.

Geomagnetic Indices

Kp (now): 2.67
Dst: -15 nT
HPI: 4 GW
Sunspot Number: 74

Headline storm-activity indices - Kp (planetary), Dst (ring current), HPI (hemispheric power), and today's sunspot count.

Aurora Model

Ovation Value: 0
Ovation Label: None
Model Data Time: Aug 31, 4:43 AM CDT
Ovation Data: Live

NOAA's OVATION Prime output - how far south the aurora oval is likely to extend right now.

Scores & Ratings

Aurora Visibility: 14 · Poor
Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon): 14 · Poor
Prediction Score: 10 · Little to None

This page's three scores side by side - raw activity, moon/cloud-adjusted visibility, and the forecast.

Sky & Location

Cloud Cover: 0% · Clear
Solar Elevation: -26.9° · Dark Night
Moon Phase: Waning Gibbous
Moon Illumination: 88%
Moon Altitude: 51.6° · Up
Latitude: 48.31724
Longitude: -102.39045
Geomagnetic Latitude: 56.2°
Horizon Threshold: Kp 4
Overhead Threshold: Kp 6

Local sky and moon conditions - what actually turns the raw aurora score into a real visibility score for this spot.

Prediction Model Inputs

Bz Persistence (60min): 0.2 nT
Newell Coupling: 6425
Dynamic Pressure: 0.8 nPa
Storm Watch (CME): —
Watch Predicted Kp: —

The individual weighted inputs - Bz persistence, coupling, pressure, CME timing - that combine into the Prediction score.

Timing & Confidence

Timing: Now
Confidence: Low
L1 Delay: ~3546 min
Best Viewing Window: 3:53 AM – 6:33 AM CDT (2h 40m)

How soon a solar wind change reaches Earth, how confident the model is right now, and today's best window to actually look up.

3-Day Kp Forecast

CDT	Aug 31	Sep 01	Sep 02
7:00 PM–10:00 PM	4	1.67	1.67
10:00 PM–1:00 AM	3.33	1.33	1.67
1:00 AM–4:00 AM	3	1.67	1.33
4:00 AM–7:00 AM	2	1.33	1.33
7:00 AM–10:00 AM	2	1.33	1.33
10:00 AM–1:00 PM	1	1.33	1.33
1:00 PM–4:00 PM	2	1.33	1.33
4:00 PM–7:00 PM	2	1.67	1.67
Max	4	1.67	1.67
Ap Index	12	5	5

Storm Probability

Level	Aug 31	Sep 01	Sep 02
Active	40%	10%	10%
Minor storm	10%	1%	1%
Moderate storm	1%	1%	1%
Strong-Extreme storm	1%	1%	1%

NOAA SWPC's official 3-day Kp forecast and geomagnetic storm probability - an independent second opinion alongside this page's own real-time model.

Planetary K-index

Aug 28

Aug 29

Aug 30

Now

Aug 31

Sep 1

Sep 2

Quiet (Kp 0-3) Unsettled (Kp 4) Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) Strong+ Storm (Kp 7-9) Forecast (hatched)

Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-0.8 nT now

Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.

Total IMF Field Bt4.4 nT now

Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.

Storm Trend20 now

Prediction score (0-100) over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.

Dst History-15 nT now

Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.

Solar Wind Speed & Pressure

Speed: 422 km/s now Pressure: 0.9 nPa now

Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.

24-hour trend charts for the values above, so you can see whether conditions are building or fading.

Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.

Related Northern Lights Pages

Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Stanley, North Dakota

Space Weather Now

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