Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Syracuse, New York
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Kp: 0.33 | Bz: 0.91
Best Viewing Window: 9:26 PM – 6:51 AM EDT (9h 25m) · peak hours typically 10:56 PM – 2:56 AM
Best Viewing Window:
9:26 PM – 6:51 AM EDT Space Weather Now
Timing: Now
3-Day Forecast for Syracuse, New York
Oct 15
Kp 2.7 is short of the roughly Kp 6 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Syracuse.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 11:00 PM–2:00 AM EDT
20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.67 during viewing window
Oct 16
Kp 1.7 is short of the roughly Kp 6 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Syracuse.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 11:00 PM–2:00 AM EDT
15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window
Oct 17
Kp 1.7 is short of the roughly Kp 6 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Syracuse.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 11:00 PM–2:00 AM EDT
15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window
Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun
Interactive Aurora Globe
Satellite View
Sunspots
Current sunspot number: 124
Coronal Mass Ejections
Aurora Photography by Todd Salat
Original prints from Todd Salat's collection.
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Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)
- Bt
- 4.5 nT
- Bx
- 2 nT
- By
- -3.9 nT
- Bz
- 0.91 nT
- Clock Angle θ
- 11.6°
- Cone Angle φ
- 296.4°
- Speed
- 451 km/s
- Density
- 3.5 p/cc
IMF Detail (GSE) & Source
- Bx
- 2 nT
- By
- -4 nT
- Bz
- -0.1 nT
- θ Angle
- -1.6°
- φ Angle
- 296°
- Satellite
- SOLAR-1
- Data Quality
- Good
- Reading Time
- Oct 15, 9:20 PM EDT
Geomagnetic Indices
- Kp (now)
- 0.33
- Dst
- -13 nT
- HPI
- 11 GW
- Sunspot Number
- 124
Aurora Model
- Ovation Value
- 0
- Ovation Label
- None
- Model Data Time
- Oct 15, 10:15 PM EDT
- Ovation Data
- Live
Scores & Ratings
- Aurora Visibility
- 0 · Poor
- Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon)
- 0 · Poor
- Prediction Score
- 0 · Little to None
Sky & Location
- Cloud Cover
- 6% · Clear
- Clouds, Next Dark Window
- 77% · Mostly Cloudy · ×0.50
- Aurora Visibility Tonight
- 0 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 0 × cloud 0.50)
- Solar Elevation
- -34° · Dark Night
- Moon Phase
- Waxing Crescent
- Moon Illumination
- 23%
- Moon Altitude
- -3.3° · Below Horizon
- Latitude
- 43.04812
- Longitude
- -76.14742
- Geomagnetic Latitude
- 52.4°
- Horizon Threshold
- Kp 6
- Overhead Threshold
- Kp 8
Prediction Model Inputs
- Bz Persistence (60min)
- -0.2 nT
- Newell Coupling
- 2653
- Latitude Gate
- 0.00 now · 0.00 tonight (horizon Kp 5.9, verdict rounds to Kp 6)
- Dynamic Pressure
- 1.2 nPa
- Storm Watch (CME)
- —
- Watch Predicted Kp
- —
Timing & Signal Agreement
- Timing
- Now
- Signal Agreement
- High (7 of 7)
- Do the live inputs point the same way as the score? A score lifted by this city's own Kp can read Low while the solar wind is calm.
- L1 Delay
- ~55 min
- Magnetic Midnight
- 12:56 AM (peak hours 10:56 PM – 2:56 AM)
- Best Viewing Window
- 9:26 PM – 6:51 AM EDT (9h 25m)
3-Day Kp Forecast
| UT slot (EDT) | Oct 16 UT | Oct 17 UT | Oct 18 UT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00–03 UT (8:00 PM–11:00 PM) | 2.33 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| 03–06 UT (11:00 PM–2:00 AM) | 2.67 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| 06–09 UT (2:00 AM–5:00 AM) | 2 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 09–12 UT (5:00 AM–8:00 AM) | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 12–15 UT (8:00 AM–11:00 AM) | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 15–18 UT (11:00 AM–2:00 PM) | 2 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 18–21 UT (2:00 PM–5:00 PM) | 2 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 21–00 UT (5:00 PM–8:00 PM) | 2.67 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Max | 2.67 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Ap Index | 8 | 5 | 5 |
Columns are NOAA's UT days, so in EDT a column's first rows fall on the previous local evening.
Storm Probability
| Level | Oct 16 UT | Oct 17 UT | Oct 18 UT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Moderate storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Strong-Extreme storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Planetary K-index
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz1.8 nT now
Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.
Total IMF Field Bt4.5 nT now
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.
Global Storm Trend15 global now
Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red from 60 (Strong), yellow from 40 (Moderate), teal below - the same cutoffs as the Prediction ring. Dashed line is the overall trend.
Dst History-13 nT now
Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.
Solar Wind Speed & Pressure
Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.
Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.
Aurora Forecasts for Nearby Cities
Checking conditions somewhere else tonight? These are the closest cities with their own northern lights prediction.
- Watertown 65 mi
- Rochester 74 mi
- Albany 124 mi
- Lake Placid 138 mi
- Buffalo 139 mi
- Ottawa 165 mi
- Markham 166 mi
- Gatineau 169 mi
Related Northern Lights Pages
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