Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Vancouver, British Columbia

Did you mean: Vancouver, Washington, United States?

Aurora Visibility39Fair

Kp: 2.33 | Bz: -5.68

Prediction26Little to None

Current Conditions: Little to no aurora activity in Vancouver. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet. Skies are clear.

Predicted Outlook: Little to no aurora activity expected currently. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet.

Best Viewing Window: 12:48 AM – 5:53 AM PDT (5h 5m)

Bz -5.68 nT Aurora None Dark Night Clear Skies · 0% Prediction 26 · Little to None Waning Gibbous 94% Color Key

Space Weather Now

Kp (now)

2.33

Forecast Kp (today)

3.67

Bz (nT)

-5.68

HPI

8 Minimal

Dst (nT)

-34

Density (p/cc)

10.1

Speed (km/s)

409

Sky / Darkness

Clear Dark Night

Sunspot Number

Timing: Now · Confidence: Moderate

Webcam

No aurora cams nearby. Center on nearest camera (906 km away).

Browse other webcams on Windy

3-Day Forecast for Vancouver, British Columbia

Tonight's forecast peaks at Kp 3.7, short of the roughly Kp 5 the aurora usually needs to be seen from Vancouver.

Aug 30

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Best time to look up: 8:00 PM–11:00 PM PDT

10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2 during viewing window

Aug 31

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Best time to look up: 11:00 PM–2:00 AM PDT

10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window

Sep 01

Forecast Pending

This night's forecast isn't in NOAA's 3-day window yet - check back closer to the date.

This night's forecast isn't available yet - check back closer to the date.

Quiet across all 3 days - low likelihood of an aurora display.

Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun

Aurora Probability

LowHigh

Interactive Aurora Globe

Full-size Aurora Globe

Satellite View

Choose your view:

National Weather Service

Sunspots

Current sunspot number: 73

SOHO

Coronal Mass Ejections

Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)

Bt: 9 nT
Bx: -3.3 nT
By: 4.3 nT
Bz: -5.68 nT
Clock Angle θ: -42.3°
Cone Angle φ: 128.3°
Speed: 409 km/s
Density: 10.1 p/cc

Real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinates - the values the prediction model actually runs on.

IMF Detail (GSE) & Source

Bx: -3.3 nT
By: 6.4 nT
Bz: -2.8 nT
θ Angle: -19°
φ Angle: 116.1°
Satellite: SOLAR-1
Data Quality: Good
Reading Time: Aug 30, 12:43 AM PDT

The same magnetic field reading in geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) coordinates, plus which satellite it came from and how fresh it is.

Geomagnetic Indices

Kp (now): 2.33
Dst: -34 nT
HPI: 8 GW
Sunspot Number: 73

Headline storm-activity indices - Kp (planetary), Dst (ring current), HPI (hemispheric power), and today's sunspot count.

Aurora Model

Ovation Value: 2
Ovation Label: None
Model Data Time: Aug 30, 1:39 AM PDT
Ovation Data: Live

NOAA's OVATION Prime output - how far south the aurora oval is likely to extend right now.

Scores & Ratings

Aurora Visibility: 39 · Fair
Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon): 39 · Fair
Prediction Score: 26 · Little to None

This page's three scores side by side - raw activity, moon/cloud-adjusted visibility, and the forecast.

Sky & Location

Cloud Cover: 0% · Clear
Solar Elevation: -31.6° · Dark Night
Moon Phase: Waning Gibbous
Moon Illumination: 94%
Moon Altitude: 38.6° · Up
Latitude: 49.24966
Longitude: -123.11934
Geomagnetic Latitude: 54.6°
Horizon Threshold: Kp 5
Overhead Threshold: Kp 7

Local sky and moon conditions - what actually turns the raw aurora score into a real visibility score for this spot.

Prediction Model Inputs

Bz Persistence (60min): -5.1 nT
Newell Coupling: 11391
Dynamic Pressure: 2.8 nPa
Storm Watch (CME): —
Watch Predicted Kp: —

The individual weighted inputs - Bz persistence, coupling, pressure, CME timing - that combine into the Prediction score.

Timing & Confidence

Timing: Now
Confidence: Moderate
L1 Delay: ~3667 min
Best Viewing Window: 12:48 AM – 5:53 AM PDT (5h 5m)

How soon a solar wind change reaches Earth, how confident the model is right now, and today's best window to actually look up.

3-Day Kp Forecast

PDT	Aug 30	Aug 31	Sep 01
5:00 PM–8:00 PM	2.67	1.67	1.67
8:00 PM–11:00 PM	3.67	2	1.33
11:00 PM–2:00 AM	3.67	1.67	1.67
2:00 AM–5:00 AM	2.67	1.67	1.33
5:00 AM–8:00 AM	1.67	1	1.33
8:00 AM–11:00 AM	1	1	1.33
11:00 AM–2:00 PM	1.67	0.67	1.33
2:00 PM–5:00 PM	2.67	2	1.67
Max	3.67	2	1.67
Ap Index	12	5	5

Max Kp forecast under 4 for all 3 days - low likelihood of an aurora display.

Storm Probability

Level	Aug 30	Aug 31	Sep 01
Active	40%	10%	10%
Minor storm	25%	1%	1%
Moderate storm	10%	1%	1%
Strong-Extreme storm	1%	1%	1%

NOAA SWPC's official 3-day Kp forecast and geomagnetic storm probability - an independent second opinion alongside this page's own real-time model.

Planetary K-index

Aug 26

Aug 27

Aug 28

Aug 29

Now

Aug 30

Aug 31

Sep 1

Quiet (Kp 0-3) Unsettled (Kp 4) Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) Strong+ Storm (Kp 7-9) Forecast (hatched)

Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-5.7 nT now

Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.

Total IMF Field Bt9 nT now

Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.

Storm Trend37 now

Prediction score (0-100) over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.

Dst History-34 nT now

Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.

Solar Wind Speed & Pressure

Speed: 401 km/s now Pressure: 2.7 nPa now

Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.

24-hour trend charts for the values above, so you can see whether conditions are building or fading.

Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.

Related Northern Lights Pages

Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Vancouver, British Columbia

Space Weather Now

Webcam