Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Yakimanna, Ivanovo Oblast, Russia
Kp: 1.67 | Bz: -0.1
Best Viewing Window: 17:56 – 06:11 MSK (12h 15m) · peak hours typically 21:21 – 01:21
Best Viewing Window:
17:56 – 06:11 MSK Space Weather Now
Timing: Now · Signal Strength: High
Webcam
No aurora cams nearby. Center on nearest camera (1036 km away).
Browse other webcams on Windy3-Day Forecast for Yakimanna, Ivanovo Oblast, Russia
Oct 15
Kp 2.3 is short of the roughly Kp 6 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Yakimanna.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 00:00–03:00 MSK
25% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.33 during viewing window
Oct 16
Kp 2.7 is short of the roughly Kp 6 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Yakimanna.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 00:00–03:00 MSK
20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.67 during viewing window
Oct 17
Kp 1.7 is short of the roughly Kp 6 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Yakimanna.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 00:00–03:00 MSK
15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window
Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun
Interactive Aurora Globe
Satellite View
Sunspots
Current sunspot number: 124
Coronal Mass Ejections
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Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)
- Bt
- 5.2 nT
- Bx
- 5.1 nT
- By
- -1 nT
- Bz
- -0.1 nT
- Clock Angle θ
- -1.1°
- Cone Angle φ
- 349.1°
- Speed
- 453 km/s
- Density
- 2.4 p/cc
IMF Detail (GSE) & Source
- Bx
- 5.1 nT
- By
- -0.8 nT
- Bz
- -0.5 nT
- θ Angle
- -5.6°
- φ Angle
- 351°
- Satellite
- SOLAR-1
- Data Quality
- Good
- Reading Time
- Oct 15, 17:49 MSK
Geomagnetic Indices
- Kp (now)
- 1.67
- Dst
- -18 nT
- HPI
- 13 GW
- Sunspot Number
- 124
Aurora Model
- Ovation Value
- 0
- Ovation Label
- None
- Model Data Time
- Oct 15, 18:44 MSK
- Ovation Data
- Live
Scores & Ratings
- Aurora Visibility
- 0 · Poor
- Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon)
- 0 · Poor
- Prediction Score
- 0 · Little to None
Sky & Location
- Cloud Cover
- 100% · Overcast
- Clouds, Next Dark Window
- 98% · Overcast · ×0.05
- Aurora Visibility Tonight
- 0 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 0 × cloud 0.05)
- Solar Elevation
- -6.6° · Nautical Twilight
- Moon Phase
- Waxing Crescent
- Moon Illumination
- 19%
- Moon Altitude
- 1.4° · Up
- Latitude
- 56.8
- Longitude
- 41.26667
- Geomagnetic Latitude
- 52.1°
- Horizon Threshold
- Kp 6
- Overhead Threshold
- Kp 8
Prediction Model Inputs
- Bz Persistence (60min)
- 1.3 nT
- Newell Coupling
- 4703
- Latitude Gate
- 0.00 now · 0.00 tonight (horizon Kp 6)
- Dynamic Pressure
- 0.8 nPa
- Storm Watch (CME)
- —
- Watch Predicted Kp
- —
Timing & Signal Strength
- Timing
- Now
- Signal Strength
- High
- L1 Delay
- ~55 min
- Magnetic Midnight
- 23:21 (peak hours 21:21 – 01:21)
- Best Viewing Window
- 17:56 – 06:11 MSK (12h 15m)
3-Day Kp Forecast
| MSK | Oct 15 | Oct 16 | Oct 17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03:00–06:00 | 2.67 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| 06:00–09:00 | 3.33 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| 09:00–12:00 | 3 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 12:00–15:00 | 2.33 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 15:00–18:00 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 18:00–21:00 | 1 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 21:00–00:00 | 1.33 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 00:00–03:00 | 2.33 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Max | 3.33 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Ap Index | 10 | 8 | 5 |
Storm Probability
| Level | Oct 15 | Oct 16 | Oct 17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| Moderate storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Strong-Extreme storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Planetary K-index
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-0.1 nT now
Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.
Total IMF Field Bt5.2 nT now
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.
Global Storm Trend20 global now
Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.
Dst History-18 nT now
Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.
Solar Wind Speed & Pressure
Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.
Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.
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