Aurora Forecast and Prediction for York, England, United Kingdom
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Kp: 2.67 | Bz: 1.26
Best Viewing Window: 18:48 – 06:58 BST (12h 10m) · peak hours typically 22:08 – 02:08
Best Viewing Window:
18:48 – 06:58 BST Space Weather Now
Timing: Tonight · Signal Strength: Low
Webcam
No aurora cams nearby. Center on nearest camera (1467 km away).
Browse other webcams on Windy3-Day Forecast for York, England, United Kingdom
Oct 13
Kp 4 is right around the roughly Kp 4 York needs - a borderline night, worth a look to the north.
Global: NOAA has issued a watch for this night (see below) - moderate planetary activity, aurora across the high-latitude zone.
CME Watch: G1 (Minor) · Kp 5 expected
Best time to look up: 04:00–07:00 BST
35% chance of elevated activity · Kp 4 during viewing window, up to Kp 5 depending on CME timing
Oct 14
Kp 3.3 is short of the roughly Kp 4 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from York.
Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.
Best time to look up: 19:00–22:00 BST
35% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3.33 during viewing window
Oct 15
Kp 2.3 is short of the roughly Kp 4 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from York.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 22:00–01:00 BST
20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.33 during viewing window
Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun
Interactive Aurora Globe
Satellite View
Sunspots
Current sunspot number: 93
Coronal Mass Ejections
Aurora Photography by Todd Salat
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Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)
- Bt
- 9.1 nT
- Bx
- 1.8 nT
- By
- -8.8 nT
- Bz
- 1.26 nT
- Clock Angle θ
- 7.9°
- Cone Angle φ
- 281.3°
- Speed
- 497 km/s
- Density
- 10.9 p/cc
IMF Detail (GSE) & Source
- Bx
- 1.8 nT
- By
- -8.2 nT
- Bz
- -3.5 nT
- θ Angle
- -22.6°
- φ Angle
- 282.1°
- Satellite
- SOLAR-1
- Data Quality
- Good
- Reading Time
- Oct 13, 12:22 BST
Geomagnetic Indices
- Kp (now)
- 2.67
- Dst
- -9 nT
- HPI
- 13 GW
- Sunspot Number
- 93
Aurora Model
- Ovation Value
- 0
- Ovation Label
- None
- Model Data Time
- Oct 13, 13:14 BST
- Ovation Data
- Live
Scores & Ratings
- Aurora Visibility
- 0 · Poor
- Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon)
- 0 · Poor
- Prediction Score
- 28 · Weak Activity
Sky & Location
- Cloud Cover
- 15% · Clear
- Clouds, Next Dark Window
- 50% · Few Clouds · ×0.85
- Aurora Visibility Tonight
- 24 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 28 × cloud 0.85)
- Solar Elevation
- 28° · Daytime
- Moon Phase
- Waxing Crescent
- Moon Illumination
- 5%
- Moon Altitude
- 6.1° · Up
- Latitude
- 53.95763
- Longitude
- -1.08271
- Geomagnetic Latitude
- 55.9°
- Horizon Threshold
- Kp 4
- Overhead Threshold
- Kp 6
Prediction Model Inputs
- Bz Persistence (60min)
- 3.3 nT
- Newell Coupling
- 5554
- Latitude Gate
- 0.23 now · 1.00 tonight (horizon Kp 4.2)
- Dynamic Pressure
- 4.5 nPa
- Storm Watch (CME)
- ~0h · G1 (Minor)
- Watch Predicted Kp
- 5
Timing & Signal Strength
- Timing
- Tonight
- Signal Strength
- Low
- L1 Delay
- ~50 min
- Magnetic Midnight
- 00:08 (peak hours 22:08 – 02:08)
- Best Viewing Window
- 18:48 – 06:58 BST (12h 10m)
3-Day Kp Forecast
| BST | Oct 13 | Oct 14 | Oct 15 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00–04:00 | 4 | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| 04:00–07:00 | 4.67 | 4 | 3.33 |
| 07:00–10:00 | 5 | 2.67 | 3 |
| 10:00–13:00 | 4.33 | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| 13:00–16:00 | 4 | 3.67 | 1.67 |
| 16:00–19:00 | 3.67 | 3.67 | 1 |
| 19:00–22:00 | 3.33 | 3.33 | 1.33 |
| 22:00–01:00 | 2.67 | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| Max | 5 | 4 | 3.33 |
| Ap Index | 28 | 20 | 10 |
Storm Probability
| Level | Oct 13 | Oct 14 | Oct 15 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 5% |
| Moderate storm | 15% | 10% | 1% |
| Strong-Extreme storm | 5% | 1% | 1% |
Planetary K-index
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-0 nT now
Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.
Total IMF Field Bt9.3 nT now
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.
Global Storm Trend26 global now
Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.
Dst History-9 nT now
Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.
Solar Wind Speed & Pressure
Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.
Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.
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