Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Ely, Minnesota
Kp: 1.33 | Bz: 0.75
Best Viewing Window: 6:53 PM – 6:58 AM CDT (12h 5m) · peak hours typically 11:08 PM – 3:08 AM
Best Viewing Window:
6:53 PM – 6:58 AM CDT Space Weather Now
Timing: Tonight · Signal Strength: High
3-Day Forecast for Ely, Minnesota
Oct 14
Kp 3.3 is short of the roughly Kp 4 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Ely.
Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.
Best time to look up: 10:00 PM–1:00 AM CDT
20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3.33 during viewing window
Oct 15
Kp 1.7 is short of the roughly Kp 4 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Ely.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 7:00 PM–10:00 PM CDT
15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window
Oct 16
Global: This night's forecast isn't in NOAA's 3-day window yet - check back closer to the date.
This night's forecast isn't available yet - check back closer to the date.
Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun
Interactive Aurora Globe
Satellite View
Sunspots
Current sunspot number: 102
Coronal Mass Ejections
Aurora Photography by Todd Salat
Original prints from Todd Salat's collection.
Kiss the Sky
Portage, Alaska · 2025
Memorial Lights
Denali State Park, Alaska · 2022
Morning Glory
Parks Highway, Alaska · 2003
Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)
- Bt
- 3.6 nT
- Bx
- 3.4 nT
- By
- -0.6 nT
- Bz
- 0.75 nT
- Clock Angle θ
- 12.1°
- Cone Angle φ
- 305°
- Speed
- 501 km/s
- Density
- 2.7 p/cc
IMF Detail (GSE) & Source
- Bx
- 3.4 nT
- By
- -0.9 nT
- Bz
- 0.4 nT
- θ Angle
- 6.5°
- φ Angle
- 340.6°
- Satellite
- SOLAR-1
- Data Quality
- Good
- Reading Time
- Oct 14, 9:27 AM CDT
Geomagnetic Indices
- Kp (now)
- 1.33
- Dst
- -8 nT
- HPI
- 9 GW
- Sunspot Number
- 102
Aurora Model
- Ovation Value
- 0
- Ovation Label
- None
- Model Data Time
- Oct 14, 10:07 AM CDT
- Ovation Data
- Live
Scores & Ratings
- Aurora Visibility
- 0 · Poor
- Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon)
- 0 · Poor
- Prediction Score
- 10 · Little to None
Sky & Location
- Cloud Cover
- 100% · Overcast
- Clouds, Next Dark Window
- 100% · Overcast · ×0.05
- Aurora Visibility Tonight
- 1 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 10 × cloud 0.05)
- Solar Elevation
- 18.6° · Daytime
- Moon Phase
- Waxing Crescent
- Moon Illumination
- 11%
- Moon Altitude
- -22.6° · Below Horizon
- Latitude
- 47.90324
- Longitude
- -91.86709
- Geomagnetic Latitude
- 56.6°
- Horizon Threshold
- Kp 4
- Overhead Threshold
- Kp 6
Prediction Model Inputs
- Bz Persistence (60min)
- -0.2 nT
- Newell Coupling
- 490
- Latitude Gate
- 0.00 now · 0.74 tonight (horizon Kp 3.8)
- Dynamic Pressure
- 1.1 nPa
- Storm Watch (CME)
- —
- Watch Predicted Kp
- —
Timing & Signal Strength
- Timing
- Tonight
- Signal Strength
- High
- L1 Delay
- ~50 min
- Magnetic Midnight
- 1:08 AM (peak hours 11:08 PM – 3:08 AM)
- Best Viewing Window
- 6:53 PM – 6:58 AM CDT (12h 5m)
3-Day Kp Forecast
| CDT | Oct 14 | Oct 15 | Oct 16 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:00 PM–10:00 PM | 3.67 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| 10:00 PM–1:00 AM | 3.33 | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| 1:00 AM–4:00 AM | 3.67 | 3 | 1.33 |
| 4:00 AM–7:00 AM | 2.67 | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| 7:00 AM–10:00 AM | 2.67 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 10:00 AM–1:00 PM | 3.33 | 1 | 1.33 |
| 1:00 PM–4:00 PM | 3.33 | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| 4:00 PM–7:00 PM | 3.33 | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| Max | 3.67 | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| Ap Index | 18 | 10 | 5 |
Storm Probability
| Level | Oct 14 | Oct 15 | Oct 16 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 5% | 1% |
| Moderate storm | 10% | 1% | 1% |
| Strong-Extreme storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Planetary K-index
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-0.2 nT now
Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.
Total IMF Field Bt3.6 nT now
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.
Global Storm Trend11 global now
Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.
Dst History-6 nT now
Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.
Solar Wind Speed & Pressure
Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.
Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.
Aurora Forecasts for Nearby Cities
Checking conditions somewhere else tonight? These are the closest cities with their own northern lights prediction.
- Grand Marais 72 mi
- Duluth 78 mi
- Superior 82 mi
- International Falls 86 mi
- Thunder Bay 125 mi
- Bemidji 143 mi
- Brainerd 153 mi
- Houghton 163 mi
Related Northern Lights Pages
Browse all prediction cities →
