Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Knik River, Alaska
Kp: 0 | Bz: 2.07
Best Viewing Window: 7:33 PM – 7:58 AM AKDT (12h 25m) · peak hours typically 12:48 AM – 4:48 AM
Best Viewing Window:
7:33 PM – 7:58 AM AKDT Space Weather Now
Timing: Tonight · Signal Strength: High
3-Day Forecast for Knik River, Alaska
Oct 14
Kp 3.3 is enough to bring the aurora high overhead at Knik River, not just low on the northern horizon.
Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.
Best time to look up: 7:00 PM–10:00 PM AKDT
25% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3.33 during viewing window
Oct 15
Kp 2.7 clears the roughly Kp 2 Knik River needs - aurora possible low on the northern horizon under dark, clear skies.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 7:00 PM–10:00 PM AKDT
20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.67 during viewing window
Oct 16
Kp 1.7 is right around the roughly Kp 2 Knik River needs - a borderline night, worth a look to the north.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 7:00 PM–10:00 PM AKDT
15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window
Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun
Interactive Aurora Globe
Satellite View
Sunspots
Current sunspot number: 124
Coronal Mass Ejections
Aurora Photography by Todd Salat
Original prints from Todd Salat's collection.
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Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)
- Bt
- 5.5 nT
- Bx
- 3.1 nT
- By
- -4.1 nT
- Bz
- 2.07 nT
- Clock Angle θ
- 22.2°
- Cone Angle φ
- 307.1°
- Speed
- 495 km/s
- Density
- 4.1 p/cc
IMF Detail (GSE) & Source
- Bx
- 3.1 nT
- By
- -4.5 nT
- Bz
- 0.7 nT
- θ Angle
- 7.2°
- φ Angle
- 304.3°
- Satellite
- SOLAR-1
- Data Quality
- Good
- Reading Time
- Oct 14, 7:09 PM AKDT
Geomagnetic Indices
- Kp (now)
- 0
- Dst
- -17 nT
- HPI
- 12 GW
- Sunspot Number
- 124
Aurora Model
- Ovation Value
- 1
- Ovation Label
- None
- Model Data Time
- Oct 14, 8:04 PM AKDT
- Ovation Data
- Live
Scores & Ratings
- Aurora Visibility
- 0 · Poor
- Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon)
- 0 · Poor
- Prediction Score
- 18 · Little to None
Sky & Location
- Cloud Cover
- 98% · Overcast
- Clouds, Next Dark Window
- 98% · Overcast · ×0.05
- Aurora Visibility Tonight
- 1 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 18 × cloud 0.05)
- Solar Elevation
- -4.8° · Civil Twilight
- Moon Phase
- Waxing Crescent
- Moon Illumination
- 15%
- Moon Altitude
- -2.7° · Below Horizon
- Latitude
- 61.46001
- Longitude
- -148.91237
- Geomagnetic Latitude
- 62.3°
- Horizon Threshold
- Kp 2
- Overhead Threshold
- Kp 3
Prediction Model Inputs
- Bz Persistence (60min)
- 1.4 nT
- Newell Coupling
- 2178
- Latitude Gate
- 0.45 now · 1.00 tonight (horizon Kp 1.1)
- Dynamic Pressure
- 1.7 nPa
- Storm Watch (CME)
- —
- Watch Predicted Kp
- —
Timing & Signal Strength
- Timing
- Tonight
- Signal Strength
- High
- L1 Delay
- ~51 min
- Magnetic Midnight
- 2:48 AM (peak hours 12:48 AM – 4:48 AM)
- Best Viewing Window
- 7:33 PM – 7:58 AM AKDT (12h 25m)
3-Day Kp Forecast
| AKDT | Oct 15 | Oct 16 | Oct 17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4:00 PM–7:00 PM | 2.67 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| 7:00 PM–10:00 PM | 3.33 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| 10:00 PM–1:00 AM | 3 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 1:00 AM–4:00 AM | 2.33 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 4:00 AM–7:00 AM | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 7:00 AM–10:00 AM | 1 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 10:00 AM–1:00 PM | 1.33 | 2 | 1.33 |
| 1:00 PM–4:00 PM | 2.33 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Max | 3.33 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Ap Index | 10 | 8 | 5 |
Storm Probability
| Level | Oct 15 | Oct 16 | Oct 17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| Moderate storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Strong-Extreme storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Planetary K-index
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz2.1 nT now
Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.
Total IMF Field Bt5.5 nT now
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.
Global Storm Trend19 global now
Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.
Dst History-17 nT now
Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.
Solar Wind Speed & Pressure
Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.
Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.
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