Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Nanaimo Park, Michigan

Aurora Visibility0Poor

Kp: 1.67 | Bz: 0.49

Prediction0Little to None

Current Conditions (as of 9:48 AM CDT): Little to no aurora activity in Nanaimo Park - sun well above the horizon. Aurora viewing is over for this morning. Overcast skies will likely block any aurora view. Tonight's viewing window looks mostly overcast (~100% cloud).

Predicted Outlook (6:38 PM – 6:43 AM CDT): Little to no aurora activity expected tonight. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet. Factoring in ~100% forecast cloud, viewing in Nanaimo Park looks Poor (0/100).

Best Viewing Window: 6:38 PM – 6:43 AM CDT (12h 5m) · peak hours typically 10:53 PM – 2:53 AM

Bz 0.49 nT Aurora None Daytime Overcast · 100% Tonight 0 · Poor · Overcast 100% Prediction 0 · Little to None Waxing Crescent 19% Color Key

Space Weather Now

Kp (now)

1.67

Forecast Kp (today)

3.33

Bz (nT)

0.49

HPI

14 Low · 27 GW

Dst (nT)

-18

Density (p/cc)

2.5

Speed (km/s)

451

Sky / Darkness

Overcast Daytime

Sunspot Number

124

Timing: Tonight · Signal Strength: High

Webcam

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3-Day Forecast for Nanaimo Park, Michigan

Tonight's forecast peaks at Kp 2.7, short of the roughly Kp 5 the aurora usually needs to be seen from Nanaimo Park.

Oct 15

Global: Quiet Nanaimo Park: Not expected

Kp 2.7 is short of the roughly Kp 5 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Nanaimo Park.

Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.

Best time to look up: 10:00 PM–1:00 AM CDT

20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.67 during viewing window

Oct 16

Global: Quiet Nanaimo Park: Not expected

Kp 1.7 is short of the roughly Kp 5 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Nanaimo Park.

Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.

Best time to look up: 7:00 PM–10:00 PM CDT

15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window

Oct 17

Global: Forecast Pending

Global: This night's forecast isn't in NOAA's 3-day window yet - check back closer to the date.

This night's forecast isn't available yet - check back closer to the date.

Quiet across all 3 days - low likelihood of an aurora display.

Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun

Aurora Probability

LowHigh

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Sunspots

Current sunspot number: 124

SOHO

Coronal Mass Ejections

Space Weather Prediction Center

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Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)

Bt: 5.2 nT
Bx: 4.9 nT
By: -1.6 nT
Bz: 0.49 nT
Clock Angle θ: 5.4°
Cone Angle φ: 342.2°
Speed: 451 km/s
Density: 2.5 p/cc

Real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinates - the values the prediction model actually runs on.

IMF Detail (GSE) & Source

Bx: 4.9 nT
By: -1.7 nT
Bz: -0.2 nT
θ Angle: -2.6°
φ Angle: 341.5°
Satellite: SOLAR-1
Data Quality: Good
Reading Time: Oct 15, 9:43 AM CDT

The same magnetic field reading in geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) coordinates, plus which satellite it came from and how fresh it is.

Geomagnetic Indices

Kp (now): 1.67
Dst: -18 nT
HPI: 14 GW
Sunspot Number: 124

Headline storm-activity indices - Kp (planetary), Dst (ring current), HPI (hemispheric power), and today's sunspot count.

Aurora Model

Ovation Value: 0
Ovation Label: None
Model Data Time: Oct 15, 10:33 AM CDT
Ovation Data: Live

NOAA's OVATION Prime output - how far south the aurora oval is likely to extend right now.

Scores & Ratings

Aurora Visibility: 0 · Poor
Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon): 0 · Poor
Prediction Score: 0 · Little to None

This page's three scores side by side - raw activity, moon/cloud-adjusted visibility, and the forecast.

Sky & Location

Cloud Cover: 100% · Overcast
Clouds, Next Dark Window: 100% · Overcast · ×0.05
Aurora Visibility Tonight: 0 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 0 × cloud 0.05)
Solar Elevation: 23.2° · Daytime
Moon Phase: Waxing Crescent
Moon Illumination: 19%
Moon Altitude: -26.5° · Below Horizon
Latitude: 46.0975
Longitude: -88.64083
Geomagnetic Latitude: 55°
Horizon Threshold: Kp 5
Overhead Threshold: Kp 7

Local sky and moon conditions - what actually turns the raw aurora score into a real visibility score for this spot.

Prediction Model Inputs

Bz Persistence (60min): 0.8 nT
Newell Coupling: 2596
Latitude Gate: 0.00 now · 0.01 tonight (horizon Kp 4.6)
Dynamic Pressure: 0.9 nPa
Storm Watch (CME): —
Watch Predicted Kp: —

The individual weighted inputs - Bz persistence, coupling, pressure, CME timing - that combine into the Prediction score.

Timing & Signal Strength

Timing: Tonight
Signal Strength: High
L1 Delay: ~55 min
Magnetic Midnight: 12:53 AM (peak hours 10:53 PM – 2:53 AM)
Best Viewing Window: 6:38 PM – 6:43 AM CDT (12h 5m)

How soon a solar wind change reaches Earth, how confident the model is right now, and today's best window to actually look up.

3-Day Kp Forecast

CDT	Oct 15	Oct 16	Oct 17
7:00 PM–10:00 PM	2.67	2.33	1.67
10:00 PM–1:00 AM	3.33	2.67	1.67
1:00 AM–4:00 AM	3	2	1.33
4:00 AM–7:00 AM	2.33	1.67	1.33
7:00 AM–10:00 AM	1.67	1.67	1.33
10:00 AM–1:00 PM	1	2	1.33
1:00 PM–4:00 PM	1.33	2	1.33
4:00 PM–7:00 PM	2.33	2.67	1.67
Max	3.33	2.67	1.67
Ap Index	10	8	5

Max Kp forecast under 4 for all 3 days - low likelihood of an aurora display.

Storm Probability

Level	Oct 15	Oct 16	Oct 17
Active	25%	20%	15%
Minor storm	5%	1%	1%
Moderate storm	1%	1%	1%
Strong-Extreme storm	1%	1%	1%

NOAA SWPC's official 3-day Kp forecast and geomagnetic storm probability - an independent second opinion alongside this page's own real-time model.

Planetary K-index

Oct 12

Oct 13

Oct 14

Oct 15

Now

Oct 14

Oct 15

Oct 16

Oct 17

Quiet (Kp 0-3) Unsettled (Kp 4) Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) Strong+ Storm (Kp 7-9) Forecast (hatched)

Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz0.5 nT now

Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.

Total IMF Field Bt5.2 nT now

Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.

Global Storm Trend21 global now

Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.

Dst History-18 nT now

Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.

Solar Wind Speed & Pressure

Speed: 458 km/s now Pressure: 1.2 nPa now

Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.

24-hour trend charts for the values above, so you can see whether conditions are building or fading.

Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.

Related Northern Lights Pages

Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Nanaimo Park, Michigan

Space Weather Now

Webcam