Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Ulaanbaatar, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

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Aurora Visibility1Poor

Kp: 3 | Bz: -0.09

Prediction12Little to None

Current Conditions: Little to no aurora activity in Ulaanbaatar - civil twilight; too bright for aurora yet. Skies are clear.

Predicted Outlook: Little to no aurora activity expected tonight. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet.

Best Viewing Window: 8:10 PM – 5:40 AM +08 (9h 30m)

Bz -0.09 nT Aurora None Civil Twilight Clear · 1% Prediction 12 · Little to None Waning Gibbous 88% Color Key

Space Weather Now

Kp (now)

Forecast Kp (today)

Bz (nT)

-0.09

HPI

3 Minimal

Dst (nT)

-20

Density (p/cc)

3.1

Speed (km/s)

431

Sky / Darkness

Clear Civil Twilight

Sunspot Number

Timing: Tonight · Confidence: Moderate

Webcam

No aurora cams nearby. Center on nearest camera (4735 km away).

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3-Day Forecast for Ulaanbaatar, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

At Ulaanbaatar's latitude the aurora stays too far north to see, even during a severe (Kp 9) storm.

Aug 31

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Best time to look up: 8:00 PM–11:00 PM +08

40% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2 during viewing window

Sep 01

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Best time to look up: 8:00 PM–11:00 PM +08

10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.33 during viewing window

Sep 02

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Best time to look up: 8:00 PM–11:00 PM +08

10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.33 during viewing window

Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun

Aurora Probability

LowHigh

Interactive Aurora Globe

Full-size Aurora Globe

Satellite View

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National Weather Service

Sunspots

Current sunspot number: 74

SOHO

Coronal Mass Ejections

Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)

Bt: 4.6 nT
Bx: -3.6 nT
By: -2.6 nT
Bz: -0.09 nT
Clock Angle θ: -1.1°
Cone Angle φ: 215.6°
Speed: 431 km/s
Density: 3.1 p/cc

Real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinates - the values the prediction model actually runs on.

IMF Detail (GSE) & Source

Bx: -3.6 nT
By: -2.2 nT
Bz: -1.4 nT
θ Angle: -17.9°
φ Angle: 210.5°
Satellite: SOLAR-1
Data Quality: Good
Reading Time: Aug 31, 7:30 PM +08

The same magnetic field reading in geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) coordinates, plus which satellite it came from and how fresh it is.

Geomagnetic Indices

Kp (now): 3
Dst: -20 nT
HPI: 3 GW
Sunspot Number: 74

Headline storm-activity indices - Kp (planetary), Dst (ring current), HPI (hemispheric power), and today's sunspot count.

Aurora Model

Ovation Value: 0
Ovation Label: None
Model Data Time: Aug 31, 8:22 PM +08
Ovation Data: Live

NOAA's OVATION Prime output - how far south the aurora oval is likely to extend right now.

Scores & Ratings

Aurora Visibility: 1 · Poor
Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon): 1 · Poor
Prediction Score: 12 · Little to None

This page's three scores side by side - raw activity, moon/cloud-adjusted visibility, and the forecast.

Sky & Location

Cloud Cover: 1% · Clear
Solar Elevation: -0.7° · Civil Twilight
Moon Phase: Waning Gibbous
Moon Illumination: 88%
Moon Altitude: -7.5° · Below Horizon
Latitude: 47.90771
Longitude: 106.88324
Geomagnetic Latitude: 38.6°
Horizon Threshold: Never
Overhead Threshold: Never

Local sky and moon conditions - what actually turns the raw aurora score into a real visibility score for this spot.

Prediction Model Inputs

Bz Persistence (60min): -0.8 nT
Newell Coupling: 3739
Dynamic Pressure: 1 nPa
Storm Watch (CME): —
Watch Predicted Kp: —

The individual weighted inputs - Bz persistence, coupling, pressure, CME timing - that combine into the Prediction score.

Timing & Confidence

Timing: Tonight
Confidence: Moderate
L1 Delay: ~3480 min
Best Viewing Window: 8:10 PM – 5:40 AM +08 (9h 30m)

How soon a solar wind change reaches Earth, how confident the model is right now, and today's best window to actually look up.

3-Day Kp Forecast

+08	Aug 31	Sep 01	Sep 02
8:00 AM–11:00 AM	4	1.67	1.67
11:00 AM–2:00 PM	3.33	1.33	1.67
2:00 PM–5:00 PM	3	1.67	1.33
5:00 PM–8:00 PM	2	1.33	1.33
8:00 PM–11:00 PM	2	1.33	1.33
11:00 PM–2:00 AM	1	1.33	1.33
2:00 AM–5:00 AM	2	1.33	1.33
5:00 AM–8:00 AM	2	1.67	1.67
Max	4	1.67	1.67
Ap Index	12	5	5

Storm Probability

Level	Aug 31	Sep 01	Sep 02
Active	40%	10%	10%
Minor storm	10%	1%	1%
Moderate storm	1%	1%	1%
Strong-Extreme storm	1%	1%	1%

NOAA SWPC's official 3-day Kp forecast and geomagnetic storm probability - an independent second opinion alongside this page's own real-time model.

Planetary K-index

Aug 28

Aug 29

Aug 30

Aug 31

Now

Sep 1

Sep 2

Sep 3

Quiet (Kp 0-3) Unsettled (Kp 4) Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) Strong+ Storm (Kp 7-9) Forecast (hatched)

Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz0 nT now

Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.

Total IMF Field Bt4.6 nT now

Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.

Storm Trend16 now

Prediction score (0-100) over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.

Dst History-20 nT now

Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.

Solar Wind Speed & Pressure

Speed: 431 km/s now Pressure: 1 nPa now

Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.

24-hour trend charts for the values above, so you can see whether conditions are building or fading.

Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.

Related Northern Lights Pages

Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Ulaanbaatar, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

Space Weather Now

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