Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Syracuse, New York

Aurora Visibility0Poor

Kp: 0.33 | Bz: -1.7

Prediction0Little to None

Current Conditions (as of 8:34 PM EDT): Little to no aurora activity in Syracuse. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet. Skies are clear.

Predicted Outlook (8:34 PM – 6:54 AM EDT): Little to no aurora activity expected currently. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet.

Best Viewing Window: 8:34 PM – 6:54 AM EDT (10h 20m) · peak hours typically 10:54 PM – 2:54 AM

Bz -1.7 nT Aurora None Dark Night Clear Skies · 0% Prediction 0 · Little to None Waxing Crescent 22% Color Key

Space Weather Now

Kp (now)

0.33

Forecast Kp (today)

2.67

Bz (nT)

-1.7

HPI

11 Low · 22 GW

Dst (nT)

-7

Density (p/cc)

3.5

Speed (km/s)

462

Sky / Darkness

Clear Dark Night

Sunspot Number

124

Timing: Now · Signal Strength: High

3-Day Forecast for Syracuse, New York

Tonight's forecast peaks at Kp 2.7, short of the roughly Kp 6 the aurora usually needs to be seen from Syracuse.

Oct 15

Global: Quiet Syracuse: Not expected

Kp 2.7 is short of the roughly Kp 6 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Syracuse.

Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.

Best time to look up: 11:00 PM–2:00 AM EDT

20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.67 during viewing window

Oct 16

Global: Quiet Syracuse: Not expected

Kp 1.7 is short of the roughly Kp 6 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Syracuse.

Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.

Best time to look up: 8:00 PM–11:00 PM EDT

15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window

Oct 17

Global: Quiet Syracuse: Not expected

Kp 1.7 is short of the roughly Kp 6 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Syracuse.

Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.

Best time to look up: 8:00 PM–11:00 PM EDT

15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window

Quiet across all 3 days - low likelihood of an aurora display.

Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun

Aurora Probability

LowHigh

Interactive Aurora Globe

Full-size Aurora Globe

Satellite View

Choose your view:

National Weather Service

Sunspots

Current sunspot number: 124

SOHO

Coronal Mass Ejections

Space Weather Prediction Center

Aurora Photography by Todd Salat

Original prints from Todd Salat's collection.

Treasure Trove - aurora borealis photograph taken at Seward, AK by Todd Salat

Valley of Light

Brooks Range, Alaska · 1999

See the full gallery Prints and pricing

Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)

Bt: 4.9 nT
Bx: 0.5 nT
By: -4.6 nT
Bz: -1.7 nT
Clock Angle θ: -20.3°
Cone Angle φ: 276.4°
Speed: 462 km/s
Density: 3.5 p/cc

Real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinates - the values the prediction model actually runs on.

IMF Detail (GSE) & Source

Bx: 0.5 nT
By: -4 nT
Bz: -2.7 nT
θ Angle: -33.7°
φ Angle: 277.2°
Satellite: SOLAR-1
Data Quality: Good
Reading Time: Oct 15, 8:27 PM EDT

The same magnetic field reading in geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) coordinates, plus which satellite it came from and how fresh it is.

Geomagnetic Indices

Kp (now): 0.33
Dst: -7 nT
HPI: 11 GW
Sunspot Number: 124

Headline storm-activity indices - Kp (planetary), Dst (ring current), HPI (hemispheric power), and today's sunspot count.

Aurora Model

Ovation Value: 0
Ovation Label: None
Model Data Time: Oct 15, 9:26 PM EDT
Ovation Data: Live

NOAA's OVATION Prime output - how far south the aurora oval is likely to extend right now.

Scores & Ratings

Aurora Visibility: 0 · Poor
Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon): 0 · Poor
Prediction Score: 0 · Little to None

This page's three scores side by side - raw activity, moon/cloud-adjusted visibility, and the forecast.

Sky & Location

Cloud Cover: 0% · Clear
Clouds, Next Dark Window: 70% · Scattered · ×0.50
Aurora Visibility Tonight: 0 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 0 × cloud 0.50)
Solar Elevation: -25° · Dark Night
Moon Phase: Waxing Crescent
Moon Illumination: 22%
Moon Altitude: 3.6° · Up
Latitude: 43.04812
Longitude: -76.14742
Geomagnetic Latitude: 52.4°
Horizon Threshold: Kp 6
Overhead Threshold: Kp 8

Local sky and moon conditions - what actually turns the raw aurora score into a real visibility score for this spot.

Prediction Model Inputs

Bz Persistence (60min): -1.1 nT
Newell Coupling: 6081
Latitude Gate: 0.00 now · 0.00 tonight (horizon Kp 5.9)
Dynamic Pressure: 1.2 nPa
Storm Watch (CME): —
Watch Predicted Kp: —

The individual weighted inputs - Bz persistence, coupling, pressure, CME timing - that combine into the Prediction score.

Timing & Signal Strength

Timing: Now
Signal Strength: High
L1 Delay: ~54 min
Magnetic Midnight: 12:54 AM (peak hours 10:54 PM – 2:54 AM)
Best Viewing Window: 8:34 PM – 6:54 AM EDT (10h 20m)

How soon a solar wind change reaches Earth, how confident the model is right now, and today's best window to actually look up.

3-Day Kp Forecast

EDT	Oct 16	Oct 17	Oct 18
8:00 PM–11:00 PM	2.33	1.67	1.67
11:00 PM–2:00 AM	2.67	1.67	1.67
2:00 AM–5:00 AM	2	1.33	1.33
5:00 AM–8:00 AM	1.67	1.33	1.33
8:00 AM–11:00 AM	1.67	1.33	1.33
11:00 AM–2:00 PM	2	1.33	1.33
2:00 PM–5:00 PM	2	1.33	1.33
5:00 PM–8:00 PM	2.67	1.67	1.67
Max	2.67	1.67	1.67
Ap Index	8	5	5

Max Kp forecast under 4 for all 3 days - low likelihood of an aurora display.

Storm Probability

Level	Oct 16	Oct 17	Oct 18
Active	20%	15%	15%
Minor storm	1%	1%	1%
Moderate storm	1%	1%	1%
Strong-Extreme storm	1%	1%	1%

NOAA SWPC's official 3-day Kp forecast and geomagnetic storm probability - an independent second opinion alongside this page's own real-time model.

Planetary K-index

Oct 12

Oct 13

Oct 14

Oct 15

Now

Oct 16

Oct 17

Oct 18

Quiet (Kp 0-3) Unsettled (Kp 4) Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) Strong+ Storm (Kp 7-9) Forecast (hatched)

Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-2.1 nT now

Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.

Total IMF Field Bt4.9 nT now

Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.

Global Storm Trend22 global now

Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.

Dst History-7 nT now

Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.

Solar Wind Speed & Pressure

Speed: 459 km/s now Pressure: 0.9 nPa now

Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.

24-hour trend charts for the values above, so you can see whether conditions are building or fading.

Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.

Aurora Forecasts for Nearby Cities

Checking conditions somewhere else tonight? These are the closest cities with their own northern lights prediction.

Watertown 65 mi
Rochester 74 mi
Albany 124 mi
Lake Placid 138 mi
Buffalo 139 mi
Ottawa 165 mi
Markham 166 mi
Gatineau 169 mi

Related Northern Lights Pages

Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Syracuse, New York

Space Weather Now

Webcam