Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Erie, Pennsylvania

Aurora Visibility0Poor

Kp: 3.33 | Bz: -3.02

Prediction22Little to None

Current Conditions: Little to no aurora activity in Erie - civil twilight and brightening. Activity is quiet. Overcast skies will likely block any aurora view.

Predicted Outlook: Little to no aurora activity expected tonight. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet.

Best Viewing Window: 8:28 PM – 6:18 AM EDT (9h 50m)

Bz -3.02 nT Aurora None Civil Twilight Overcast · 100% Prediction 22 · Little to None Waning Gibbous 94% Color Key

Space Weather Now

Kp (now)

3.33

Forecast Kp (today)

3.67

Bz (nT)

-3.02

HPI

6 Minimal

Dst (nT)

-34

Density (p/cc)

4.6

Speed (km/s)

454

Sky / Darkness

Overcast Civil Twilight

Sunspot Number

Timing: Tonight · Confidence: Moderate

Webcam

No aurora cams nearby. Center on nearest camera (806 km away).

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3-Day Forecast for Erie, Pennsylvania

Tonight's forecast peaks at Kp 2, short of the roughly Kp 6 the aurora usually needs to be seen from Erie.

Aug 30

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Best time to look up: 11:00 PM–2:00 AM EDT

10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2 during viewing window

Aug 31

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Best time to look up: 8:00 PM–11:00 PM EDT

10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window

Sep 01

Forecast Pending

This night's forecast isn't in NOAA's 3-day window yet - check back closer to the date.

This night's forecast isn't available yet - check back closer to the date.

Quiet across all 3 days - low likelihood of an aurora display.

Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun

Aurora Probability

LowHigh

Interactive Aurora Globe

Full-size Aurora Globe

Satellite View

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National Weather Service

Sunspots

Current sunspot number: 73

SOHO

Coronal Mass Ejections

Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)

Bt: 5.7 nT
Bx: -4.6 nT
By: -1.3 nT
Bz: -3.02 nT
Clock Angle θ: -32.1°
Cone Angle φ: 195.7°
Speed: 454 km/s
Density: 4.6 p/cc

Real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinates - the values the prediction model actually runs on.

IMF Detail (GSE) & Source

Bx: -4.6 nT
By: 0.3 nT
Bz: -3.2 nT
θ Angle: -34.3°
φ Angle: 176.4°
Satellite: SOLAR-1
Data Quality: Good
Reading Time: Aug 30, 6:32 AM EDT

The same magnetic field reading in geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) coordinates, plus which satellite it came from and how fresh it is.

Geomagnetic Indices

Kp (now): 3.33
Dst: -34 nT
HPI: 6 GW
Sunspot Number: 73

Headline storm-activity indices - Kp (planetary), Dst (ring current), HPI (hemispheric power), and today's sunspot count.

Aurora Model

Ovation Value: 0
Ovation Label: None
Model Data Time: Aug 30, 7:23 AM EDT
Ovation Data: Live

NOAA's OVATION Prime output - how far south the aurora oval is likely to extend right now.

Scores & Ratings

Aurora Visibility: 0 · Poor
Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon): 0 · Poor
Prediction Score: 22 · Little to None

This page's three scores side by side - raw activity, moon/cloud-adjusted visibility, and the forecast.

Sky & Location

Cloud Cover: 100% · Overcast
Solar Elevation: -1.7° · Civil Twilight
Moon Phase: Waning Gibbous
Moon Illumination: 94%
Moon Altitude: 27.1° · Up
Latitude: 42.12922
Longitude: -80.08506
Geomagnetic Latitude: 51.4°
Horizon Threshold: Kp 6
Overhead Threshold: Kp 8

Local sky and moon conditions - what actually turns the raw aurora score into a real visibility score for this spot.

Prediction Model Inputs

Bz Persistence (60min): -1.4 nT
Newell Coupling: 10533
Dynamic Pressure: 1.6 nPa
Storm Watch (CME): —
Watch Predicted Kp: —

The individual weighted inputs - Bz persistence, coupling, pressure, CME timing - that combine into the Prediction score.

Timing & Confidence

Timing: Tonight
Confidence: Moderate
L1 Delay: ~3304 min
Best Viewing Window: 8:28 PM – 6:18 AM EDT (9h 50m)

How soon a solar wind change reaches Earth, how confident the model is right now, and today's best window to actually look up.

3-Day Kp Forecast

EDT	Aug 30	Aug 31	Sep 01
8:00 PM–11:00 PM	2.67	1.67	1.67
11:00 PM–2:00 AM	3.67	2	1.33
2:00 AM–5:00 AM	3.67	1.67	1.67
5:00 AM–8:00 AM	2.67	1.67	1.33
8:00 AM–11:00 AM	1.67	1	1.33
11:00 AM–2:00 PM	1	1	1.33
2:00 PM–5:00 PM	1.67	0.67	1.33
5:00 PM–8:00 PM	2.67	2	1.67
Max	3.67	2	1.67
Ap Index	12	5	5

Max Kp forecast under 4 for all 3 days - low likelihood of an aurora display.

Storm Probability

Level	Aug 30	Aug 31	Sep 01
Active	40%	10%	10%
Minor storm	25%	1%	1%
Moderate storm	10%	1%	1%
Strong-Extreme storm	1%	1%	1%

NOAA SWPC's official 3-day Kp forecast and geomagnetic storm probability - an independent second opinion alongside this page's own real-time model.

Planetary K-index

Aug 27

Aug 28

Aug 29

Aug 30

Now

Aug 29

Aug 30

Aug 31

Sep 1

Quiet (Kp 0-3) Unsettled (Kp 4) Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) Strong+ Storm (Kp 7-9) Forecast (hatched)

Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-4.3 nT now

Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.

Total IMF Field Bt5.9 nT now

Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.

Storm Trend32 now

Prediction score (0-100) over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.

Dst History-34 nT now

Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.

Solar Wind Speed & Pressure

Speed: 453 km/s now Pressure: 1.6 nPa now

Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.

24-hour trend charts for the values above, so you can see whether conditions are building or fading.

Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.

Related Northern Lights Pages

Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Erie, Pennsylvania

Space Weather Now

Webcam