Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Erie, Pennsylvania
Kp: 1.33 | Bz: 0.7
Best Viewing Window: 7:10 PM – 7:05 AM EDT (11h 55m) · peak hours typically 11:10 PM – 3:10 AM
Best Viewing Window:
7:10 PM – 7:05 AM EDT Space Weather Now
Timing: Tonight · Signal Strength: High
Webcam
No aurora cams nearby. Center on nearest camera (501 mi away).
Browse other webcams on Windy3-Day Forecast for Erie, Pennsylvania
Oct 14
Kp 3.3 is short of the roughly Kp 6 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Erie.
Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.
Best time to look up: 11:00 PM–2:00 AM EDT
20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3.33 during viewing window
Oct 15
Kp 1.7 is short of the roughly Kp 6 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Erie.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 8:00 PM–11:00 PM EDT
15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window
Oct 16
Global: This night's forecast isn't in NOAA's 3-day window yet - check back closer to the date.
This night's forecast isn't available yet - check back closer to the date.
Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun
Interactive Aurora Globe
Satellite View
Sunspots
Current sunspot number: 102
Coronal Mass Ejections
Aurora Photography by Todd Salat
Original prints from Todd Salat's collection.
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Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)
- Bt
- 3.7 nT
- Bx
- 3.5 nT
- By
- 1 nT
- Bz
- 0.7 nT
- Clock Angle θ
- 10.9°
- Cone Angle φ
- 15.1°
- Speed
- 501 km/s
- Density
- 2.8 p/cc
IMF Detail (GSE) & Source
- Bx
- 3.5 nT
- By
- 0.5 nT
- Bz
- 1 nT
- θ Angle
- 16.4°
- φ Angle
- 12.8°
- Satellite
- SOLAR-1
- Data Quality
- Good
- Reading Time
- Oct 14, 10:30 AM EDT
Geomagnetic Indices
- Kp (now)
- 1.33
- Dst
- -8 nT
- HPI
- 9 GW
- Sunspot Number
- 102
Aurora Model
- Ovation Value
- 0
- Ovation Label
- None
- Model Data Time
- Oct 14, 11:07 AM EDT
- Ovation Data
- Live
Scores & Ratings
- Aurora Visibility
- 0 · Poor
- Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon)
- 0 · Poor
- Prediction Score
- 0 · Little to None
Sky & Location
- Cloud Cover
- 100% · Overcast
- Clouds, Next Dark Window
- 99% · Overcast · ×0.05
- Aurora Visibility Tonight
- 0 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 0 × cloud 0.05)
- Solar Elevation
- 29° · Daytime
- Moon Phase
- Waxing Crescent
- Moon Illumination
- 11%
- Moon Altitude
- -12.5° · Below Horizon
- Latitude
- 42.12922
- Longitude
- -80.08506
- Geomagnetic Latitude
- 51.4°
- Horizon Threshold
- Kp 6
- Overhead Threshold
- Kp 8
Prediction Model Inputs
- Bz Persistence (60min)
- -0.1 nT
- Newell Coupling
- 1213
- Latitude Gate
- 0.00 now · 0.00 tonight (horizon Kp 6.4)
- Dynamic Pressure
- 1.2 nPa
- Storm Watch (CME)
- —
- Watch Predicted Kp
- —
Timing & Signal Strength
- Timing
- Tonight
- Signal Strength
- High
- L1 Delay
- ~50 min
- Magnetic Midnight
- 1:10 AM (peak hours 11:10 PM – 3:10 AM)
- Best Viewing Window
- 7:10 PM – 7:05 AM EDT (11h 55m)
3-Day Kp Forecast
| EDT | Oct 14 | Oct 15 | Oct 16 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:00 PM–11:00 PM | 3.67 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| 11:00 PM–2:00 AM | 3.33 | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| 2:00 AM–5:00 AM | 3.67 | 3 | 1.33 |
| 5:00 AM–8:00 AM | 2.67 | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| 8:00 AM–11:00 AM | 2.67 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 11:00 AM–2:00 PM | 3.33 | 1 | 1.33 |
| 2:00 PM–5:00 PM | 3.33 | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| 5:00 PM–8:00 PM | 3.33 | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| Max | 3.67 | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| Ap Index | 18 | 10 | 5 |
Storm Probability
| Level | Oct 14 | Oct 15 | Oct 16 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 5% | 1% |
| Moderate storm | 10% | 1% | 1% |
| Strong-Extreme storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Planetary K-index
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz0.8 nT now
Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.
Total IMF Field Bt3.6 nT now
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.
Global Storm Trend12 global now
Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.
Dst History-8 nT now
Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.
Solar Wind Speed & Pressure
Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.
Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.
Aurora Forecasts for Nearby Cities
Checking conditions somewhere else tonight? These are the closest cities with their own northern lights prediction.
- Hamilton 78 mi
- Buffalo 81 mi
- London 83 mi
- Kitchener 92 mi
- Cleveland 94 mi
- Mississauga 102 mi
- Brampton 109 mi
- Toronto 114 mi
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