Aurora Forecast and Prediction for London, Ontario

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Aurora Visibility0Poor
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Kp: 2.33 | Bz: -2.11

Prediction0Little to None

Best Viewing Window: 6:25 AM – 6:30 AM EST (0h 5m) · peak hours typically 10:15 PM – 2:15 AM

Bz -2.11 nT Aurora None Nautical Twilight Partly Cloudy · 28% Prediction 0 · Little to None Waning Gibbous 61% Color Key
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Space Weather Now

Kp (now)
2.33
Forecast Kp (tonight)
2.67
Bz (nT)
-2.11
HPI
18 Low · 36 GW
Dst (nT)
-47
Density (p/cc)
1
Speed (km/s)
503
Sky / Darkness
Partly Cloudy Nautical Twilight
Sunspot Number
24

Timing: Now

Webcam

No aurora cams nearby. Center on nearest camera (848 km away).

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3-Day Forecast for London, Ontario

Oct 31

Global: Active London: Not expected

Kp 2.7 is short of the roughly Kp 6 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from London.

Global: NOAA has issued a watch for this night (see below) - moderate planetary activity, aurora across the high-latitude zone.

CME Watch: G1 (Minor) · Kp 5 expected

Best time to look up: 4:00 AM–7:00 AM EST

25% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.67 during viewing window, up to Kp 5 depending on CME timing

Nov 01

Global: Active London: Not expected

Kp 2.7 is short of the roughly Kp 6 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from London.

Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.

Best time to look up: 10:00 PM–1:00 AM EST

25% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.67 during viewing window

Nov 02

Global: Quiet London: Not expected

Kp 1.7 is short of the roughly Kp 6 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from London.

Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.

Best time to look up: 10:00 PM–1:00 AM EST

10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window

Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun

Aurora Probability
LowHigh

Interactive Aurora Globe

North America Satellite

Satellite View

sunspots

Sunspots

Current sunspot number: 24

Coronal Mass Ejection

Coronal Mass Ejections

Nerd Mode

Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)

Bt
2.9 nT
Bx
0.6 nT
By
1.9 nT
Bz
-2.11 nT
Clock Angle θ
-46°
Cone Angle φ
72.3°
Speed
503 km/s
Density
1 p/cc

IMF Detail (GSE) & Source

Bx
0.6 nT
By
2.7 nT
Bz
-0.9 nT
θ Angle
-18.2°
φ Angle
77.6°
Satellite
ACE
Data Quality
Good
Reading Time
Nov 1, 6:21 AM EST

Geomagnetic Indices

Kp (now)
2.33
Dst
-47 nT
HPI
18 GW
Sunspot Number
24

Aurora Model

Ovation Value
0
Ovation Label
None
Model Data Time
Nov 1, 7:10 AM EST
Ovation Data
Live

Scores & Ratings

Aurora Visibility
0 · Poor
Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon)
0 · Poor
Prediction Score
0 · Little to None

Sky & Location

Cloud Cover
28% · Partly Cloudy
Clouds, Next Dark Window
100% · Overcast · ×0.05
Aurora Visibility Tonight
0 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 3 × cloud 0.05)
Solar Elevation
-6.7° · Nautical Twilight
Moon Phase
Waning Gibbous
Moon Illumination
61%
Moon Altitude
68.3° · Up
Latitude
42.98339
Longitude
-81.23304
Geomagnetic Latitude
52.2°
Horizon Threshold
Kp 6
Overhead Threshold
Kp 8

Prediction Model Inputs

Bz Persistence (60min)
-0.4 nT
Newell Coupling
6773
Latitude Gate
0.00 now · 0.06 tonight (horizon Kp 6)
Dynamic Pressure
0.4 nPa
Storm Watch (CME)
~0h · G1 (Minor)
Watch Predicted Kp
5

Timing & Signal Agreement

Timing
Now
Signal Agreement
High (7 of 7)
Do the live inputs point the same way as the score? A score lifted by this city's own Kp can read Low while the solar wind is calm.
L1 Delay
~50 min
Magnetic Midnight
12:15 AM (peak hours 10:15 PM – 2:15 AM)
Best Viewing Window
6:25 AM – 6:30 AM EST (0h 5m)

3-Day Kp Forecast

UT slot (EST) Nov 01 UT Nov 02 UT Nov 03 UT
00–03 UT (8:00 PM–11:00 PM) 3.67 2.67 1.67
03–06 UT (11:00 PM–1:00 AM) 3 2.33 1.33
06–09 UT (1:00 AM–4:00 AM) 4.67 2.33 1.33
09–12 UT (4:00 AM–7:00 AM) 2.67 2.33 1.33
12–15 UT (7:00 AM–10:00 AM) 3.67 2.33 1.33
15–18 UT (10:00 AM–1:00 PM) 3.33 2 1.67
18–21 UT (1:00 PM–4:00 PM) 3 2.33 1.67
21–00 UT (4:00 PM–7:00 PM) 3.33 2.67 1.33
Max 4.67 2.67 1.67
Ap Index 20 10 5

Columns are NOAA's UT days, so in EST a column's first rows fall on the previous local evening.

Storm Probability

Level Nov 01 UT Nov 02 UT Nov 03 UT
Active 25% 25% 10%
Minor storm 35% 5% 1%
Moderate storm 20% 1% 1%
Strong-Extreme storm 5% 1% 1%

Planetary K-index

Oct 29
Oct 30
Oct 31
Nov 1
Now
Oct 31
Nov 1
Nov 2
Nov 3
Quiet (Kp 0-3) Unsettled (Kp 4) Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) Strong+ Storm (Kp 7-9) Forecast (hatched)

Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-2.1 nT now

12 0 -14 Oct 31, 7 AM Oct 31, 1 PM Oct 31, 7 PM Nov 1, 1 AM Nov 1, 6 AM

Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.

Total IMF Field Bt2.9 nT now

14 0 Oct 31, 7 AM Oct 31, 1 PM Oct 31, 7 PM Nov 1, 1 AM Nov 1, 6 AM

Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.

Global Storm Trend37 global now

100 50 0 Oct 31, 7 AM Oct 31, 1 PM Oct 31, 7 PM Nov 1, 1 AM Nov 1, 6 AM

Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red from 60 (Strong), yellow from 40 (Moderate), teal below - the same cutoffs as the Prediction ring. Dashed line is the overall trend.

Dst History-47 nT now

28 0 -63 Oct 31, 7 AM Oct 31, 1 PM Oct 31, 7 PM Nov 1, 1 AM Nov 1, 6 AM

Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.

Solar Wind Speed & Pressure

Oct 31, 7 AM Oct 31, 1 PM Oct 31, 7 PM Nov 1, 1 AM Nov 1, 6 AM
Speed: 501 km/s now Pressure: 0.3 nPa now

Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.

Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.


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