Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Helsinkibreen, Svalbard

Aurora Visibility0Poor

Kp: 2.33 | Bz: -0.41

Prediction20Little to None

Current Conditions: Little to no aurora activity in Helsinkibreen - sun well above the horizon. Aurora viewing is over for this morning. Overcast skies will likely block any aurora view.

Predicted Outlook: Little to no aurora activity expected tonight. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet.

Best Viewing Window: Continuous daylight right now - no dark-sky viewing window.

Bz -0.41 nT Aurora None Daytime Overcast · 100% Prediction 20 · Little to None Waning Gibbous 95% Color Key

Space Weather Now

Kp (now)

2.33

Forecast Kp (today)

3.67

Bz (nT)

-0.41

HPI

8 Minimal

Dst (nT)

-35

Density (p/cc)

9.6

Speed (km/s)

424

Sky / Darkness

Overcast Daytime

Sunspot Number

Timing: Tonight · Confidence: Moderate

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3-Day Forecast for Helsinkibreen, Svalbard

Right now the sky over Helsinkibreen only dips into bright twilight after sunset and never gets truly dark, so the aurora cannot be seen no matter how strong the storm. Darker nights return around Sep 26.

Aug 30

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Skies won't get dark enough to see aurora this day.

40% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2.67 max

Aug 31

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Skies won't get dark enough to see aurora this day.

10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 2 max

Sep 01

Quiet

Low chance of aurora - geomagnetic activity is expected to stay quiet.

Skies won't get dark enough to see aurora this day.

10% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 max

Quiet across all 3 days - low likelihood of an aurora display.

Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun

Aurora Probability

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Interactive Aurora Globe

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National Weather Service

Sunspots

Current sunspot number: 73

SOHO

Coronal Mass Ejections

Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)

Bt: 11.6 nT
Bx: -5 nT
By: 10 nT
Bz: -0.41 nT
Clock Angle θ: -1.9°
Cone Angle φ: 116.5°
Speed: 424 km/s
Density: 9.6 p/cc

Real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field, in geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinates - the values the prediction model actually runs on.

IMF Detail (GSE) & Source

Bx: -5 nT
By: 9.1 nT
Bz: 4.1 nT
θ Angle: 20.6°
φ Angle: 119.7°
Satellite: SOLAR-1
Data Quality: Good
Reading Time: Aug 30, 9:11 AM CEST

The same magnetic field reading in geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) coordinates, plus which satellite it came from and how fresh it is.

Geomagnetic Indices

Kp (now): 2.33
Dst: -35 nT
HPI: 8 GW
Sunspot Number: 73

Headline storm-activity indices - Kp (planetary), Dst (ring current), HPI (hemispheric power), and today's sunspot count.

Aurora Model

Ovation Value: 4
Ovation Label: None
Model Data Time: Aug 30, 10:05 AM CEST
Ovation Data: Live

NOAA's OVATION Prime output - how far south the aurora oval is likely to extend right now.

Scores & Ratings

Aurora Visibility: 0 · Poor
Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon): 0 · Poor
Prediction Score: 20 · Little to None

This page's three scores side by side - raw activity, moon/cloud-adjusted visibility, and the forecast.

Sky & Location

Cloud Cover: 100% · Overcast
Solar Elevation: 15.3° · Daytime
Moon Phase: Waning Gibbous
Moon Illumination: 95%
Moon Altitude: 0.5° · Up
Latitude: 78.95583
Longitude: 16.83507
Geomagnetic Latitude: 75.6°
Horizon Threshold: Kp 1
Overhead Threshold: Kp 1

Local sky and moon conditions - what actually turns the raw aurora score into a real visibility score for this spot.

Prediction Model Inputs

Bz Persistence (60min): -5.3 nT
Newell Coupling: 6834
Dynamic Pressure: 2.9 nPa
Storm Watch (CME): —
Watch Predicted Kp: —

The individual weighted inputs - Bz persistence, coupling, pressure, CME timing - that combine into the Prediction score.

Timing & Confidence

Timing: Tonight
Confidence: Moderate
L1 Delay: ~3538 min
Best Viewing Window: Continuous daylight right now - no dark-sky viewing window.

How soon a solar wind change reaches Earth, how confident the model is right now, and today's best window to actually look up.

3-Day Kp Forecast

CEST	Aug 30	Aug 31	Sep 01
2:00 AM–5:00 AM	2.67	1.67	1.67
5:00 AM–8:00 AM	3.67	2	1.33
8:00 AM–11:00 AM	3.67	1.67	1.67
11:00 AM–2:00 PM	2.67	1.67	1.33
2:00 PM–5:00 PM	1.67	1	1.33
5:00 PM–8:00 PM	1	1	1.33
8:00 PM–11:00 PM	1.67	0.67	1.33
11:00 PM–2:00 AM	2.67	2	1.67
Max	3.67	2	1.67
Ap Index	12	5	5

Max Kp forecast under 4 for all 3 days - low likelihood of an aurora display.

Storm Probability

Level	Aug 30	Aug 31	Sep 01
Active	40%	10%	10%
Minor storm	25%	1%	1%
Moderate storm	10%	1%	1%
Strong-Extreme storm	1%	1%	1%

NOAA SWPC's official 3-day Kp forecast and geomagnetic storm probability - an independent second opinion alongside this page's own real-time model.

Planetary K-index

Aug 27

Aug 28

Aug 29

Aug 30

Now

Aug 31

Sep 1

Quiet (Kp 0-3) Unsettled (Kp 4) Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) Strong+ Storm (Kp 7-9) Forecast (hatched)

Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz0.8 nT now

Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.

Total IMF Field Bt11.6 nT now

Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.

Storm Trend36 now

Prediction score (0-100) over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.

Dst History-35 nT now

Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.

Solar Wind Speed & Pressure

Speed: 414 km/s now Pressure: 2.6 nPa now

Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.

24-hour trend charts for the values above, so you can see whether conditions are building or fading.

Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.

Related Northern Lights Pages

Aurora Outlook and Prediction for Helsinkibreen, Svalbard

Space Weather Now

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