Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Grand Marais, Minnesota
Did you mean: Grand Marais, Wallonia, Belgium?
Kp: 0 | Bz: 1.28
Best Viewing Window: 6:46 PM – 6:51 AM CDT (12h 5m) · peak hours typically 11:01 PM – 3:01 AM
Best Viewing Window:
6:46 PM – 6:51 AM CDT Space Weather Now
Timing: Tonight · Signal Strength: High
3-Day Forecast for Grand Marais, Minnesota
Oct 14
Kp 3.3 is short of the roughly Kp 4 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Grand Marais.
Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.
Best time to look up: 10:00 PM–1:00 AM CDT
20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3.33 during viewing window
Oct 15
Kp 1.7 is short of the roughly Kp 4 the aurora needs to clear the northern horizon from Grand Marais.
Global: Quiet planetary conditions expected - aurora mostly confined to the far north.
Best time to look up: 7:00 PM–10:00 PM CDT
15% chance of elevated activity · Kp 1.67 during viewing window
Oct 16
Global: This night's forecast isn't in NOAA's 3-day window yet - check back closer to the date.
This night's forecast isn't available yet - check back closer to the date.
Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun
Interactive Aurora Globe
Satellite View
Sunspots
Current sunspot number: 102
Coronal Mass Ejections
Aurora Photography by Todd Salat
Original prints from Todd Salat's collection.
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Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)
- Bt
- 7 nT
- Bx
- -0.4 nT
- By
- -6.9 nT
- Bz
- 1.28 nT
- Clock Angle θ
- 10.6°
- Cone Angle φ
- 267°
- Speed
- 549 km/s
- Density
- 3.4 p/cc
IMF Detail (GSE) & Source
- Bx
- -0.4 nT
- By
- -7 nT
- Bz
- -0.4 nT
- θ Angle
- -3°
- φ Angle
- 267°
- Satellite
- SOLAR-1
- Data Quality
- Good
- Reading Time
- Oct 14, 4:00 PM CDT
Geomagnetic Indices
- Kp (now)
- 0
- Dst
- -3 nT
- HPI
- 13 GW
- Sunspot Number
- 102
Aurora Model
- Ovation Value
- 0
- Ovation Label
- None
- Model Data Time
- Oct 14, 4:45 PM CDT
- Ovation Data
- Live
Scores & Ratings
- Aurora Visibility
- 0 · Poor
- Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon)
- 0 · Poor
- Prediction Score
- 14 · Little to None
Sky & Location
- Cloud Cover
- 87% · Overcast
- Clouds, Next Dark Window
- 100% · Overcast · ×0.05
- Aurora Visibility Tonight
- 1 · Poor (Outlook Tonight 14 × cloud 0.05)
- Solar Elevation
- 18.7° · Daytime
- Moon Phase
- Waxing Crescent
- Moon Illumination
- 13%
- Moon Altitude
- 15.2° · Up
- Latitude
- 47.75045
- Longitude
- -90.33427
- Geomagnetic Latitude
- 56.6°
- Horizon Threshold
- Kp 4
- Overhead Threshold
- Kp 6
Prediction Model Inputs
- Bz Persistence (60min)
- 1.3 nT
- Newell Coupling
- 4991
- Latitude Gate
- 0.00 now · 0.73 tonight (horizon Kp 3.9)
- Dynamic Pressure
- 1.7 nPa
- Storm Watch (CME)
- —
- Watch Predicted Kp
- —
Timing & Signal Strength
- Timing
- Tonight
- Signal Strength
- High
- L1 Delay
- ~46 min
- Magnetic Midnight
- 1:01 AM (peak hours 11:01 PM – 3:01 AM)
- Best Viewing Window
- 6:46 PM – 6:51 AM CDT (12h 5m)
3-Day Kp Forecast
| CDT | Oct 14 | Oct 15 | Oct 16 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:00 PM–10:00 PM | 3.67 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| 10:00 PM–1:00 AM | 3.33 | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| 1:00 AM–4:00 AM | 3.67 | 3 | 1.33 |
| 4:00 AM–7:00 AM | 2.67 | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| 7:00 AM–10:00 AM | 2.67 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 10:00 AM–1:00 PM | 3.33 | 1 | 1.33 |
| 1:00 PM–4:00 PM | 3.33 | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| 4:00 PM–7:00 PM | 3.33 | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| Max | 3.67 | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| Ap Index | 18 | 10 | 5 |
Storm Probability
| Level | Oct 14 | Oct 15 | Oct 16 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 5% | 1% |
| Moderate storm | 10% | 1% | 1% |
| Strong-Extreme storm | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Planetary K-index
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-0.2 nT now
Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.
Total IMF Field Bt7.1 nT now
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.
Global Storm Trend24 global now
Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.
Dst History-3 nT now
Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.
Solar Wind Speed & Pressure
Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.
Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.
Aurora Forecasts for Nearby Cities
Checking conditions somewhere else tonight? These are the closest cities with their own northern lights prediction.
- Thunder Bay 66 mi
- Ely 72 mi
- Houghton 93 mi
- Duluth 107 mi
- Superior 109 mi
- International Falls 153 mi
- Marquette 161 mi
- Wausau 196 mi
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