Aurora Forecast and Prediction for Edmonton, Alberta
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Kp: 1.33 | Bz: -2.9
Best Viewing Window: 3:01 AM – 7:26 AM MDT (4h 25m) · peak hours typically 11:56 PM – 3:56 AM
Best Viewing Window:
3:01 AM – 7:26 AM MDT Space Weather Now
Timing: Now · Signal Strength: High
3-Day Forecast for Edmonton, Alberta
Oct 12
Kp 4.3 is enough to bring the aurora high overhead at Edmonton, not just low on the northern horizon.
Global: NOAA has issued a watch for this night (see below) - moderate planetary activity, aurora across the high-latitude zone.
CME Watch: G1 (Minor) · Kp 5 expected
Best time to look up: 3:00 AM–6:00 AM MDT
35% chance of elevated activity · Kp 4.33 during viewing window, up to Kp 5 depending on CME timing
Oct 13
Kp 4 is enough to bring the aurora high overhead at Edmonton, not just low on the northern horizon.
Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.
Best time to look up: 9:00 PM–12:00 AM MDT
35% chance of elevated activity · Kp 4 during viewing window
Oct 14
Kp 3.3 clears the roughly Kp 2 Edmonton needs - aurora possible low on the northern horizon under dark, clear skies.
Global: Moderate planetary activity expected - aurora across the high-latitude zone, and lower with a good substorm.
Best time to look up: 9:00 PM–12:00 AM MDT
20% chance of elevated activity · Kp 3.33 during viewing window
Aurora Oval & Satellite & Sun
Interactive Aurora Globe
Satellite View
Sunspots
Current sunspot number: 93
Coronal Mass Ejections
Aurora Photography by Todd Salat
Original prints from Todd Salat's collection.
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Solar Wind & IMF (GSM)
- Bt
- 8.5 nT
- Bx
- 6.2 nT
- By
- -4.9 nT
- Bz
- -2.9 nT
- Clock Angle θ
- -19.9°
- Cone Angle φ
- 322.1°
- Speed
- 470 km/s
- Density
- 9.7 p/cc
IMF Detail (GSE) & Source
- Bx
- 6.2 nT
- By
- -2.7 nT
- Bz
- -5 nT
- θ Angle
- -35.5°
- φ Angle
- 336.9°
- Satellite
- SOLAR-1
- Data Quality
- Good
- Reading Time
- Oct 13, 2:54 AM MDT
Geomagnetic Indices
- Kp (now)
- 1.33
- Dst
- -13 nT
- HPI
- 8 GW
- Sunspot Number
- 93
Aurora Model
- Ovation Value
- 5
- Ovation Label
- Weak
- Model Data Time
- Oct 13, 3:42 AM MDT
- Ovation Data
- Live
Scores & Ratings
- Aurora Visibility
- 13 · Poor
- Aurora Visibility (w/ Moon)
- 13 · Poor
- Prediction Score
- 14 · Little to None
Sky & Location
- Cloud Cover
- 6% · Clear
- Clouds, Next Dark Window
- 37% · Few Clouds · ×0.85
- Aurora Visibility Tonight
- 30 · Fair (Outlook Tonight 35 × cloud 0.85)
- Solar Elevation
- -39.9° · Dark Night
- Moon Phase
- Waxing Crescent
- Moon Illumination
- 4%
- Moon Altitude
- -59.5° · Below Horizon
- Latitude
- 53.55014
- Longitude
- -113.46871
- Geomagnetic Latitude
- 60.1°
- Horizon Threshold
- Kp 2
- Overhead Threshold
- Kp 4
Prediction Model Inputs
- Bz Persistence (60min)
- 3 nT
- Newell Coupling
- 10457
- Latitude Gate
- 0.59 now · 1.00 tonight (horizon Kp 2.2)
- Dynamic Pressure
- 3.6 nPa
- Storm Watch (CME)
- ~0h · G1 (Minor)
- Watch Predicted Kp
- 5
Timing & Signal Strength
- Timing
- Now
- Signal Strength
- High
- L1 Delay
- ~53 min
- Magnetic Midnight
- 1:56 AM (peak hours 11:56 PM – 3:56 AM)
- Best Viewing Window
- 3:01 AM – 7:26 AM MDT (4h 25m)
3-Day Kp Forecast
| MDT | Oct 13 | Oct 14 | Oct 15 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6:00 PM–9:00 PM | 4 | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| 9:00 PM–12:00 AM | 4.67 | 4 | 3.33 |
| 12:00 AM–3:00 AM | 5 | 2.67 | 3 |
| 3:00 AM–6:00 AM | 4.33 | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| 6:00 AM–9:00 AM | 4 | 3.67 | 1.67 |
| 9:00 AM–12:00 PM | 3.67 | 3.67 | 1 |
| 12:00 PM–3:00 PM | 3.33 | 3.33 | 1.33 |
| 3:00 PM–6:00 PM | 2.67 | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| Max | 5 | 4 | 3.33 |
| Ap Index | 28 | 20 | 10 |
Storm Probability
| Level | Oct 13 | Oct 14 | Oct 15 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 5% |
| Moderate storm | 15% | 10% | 1% |
| Strong-Extreme storm | 5% | 1% | 1% |
Planetary K-index
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz-2.9 nT now
Southward (negative) Bz favors aurora. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bz.
Total IMF Field Bt8.5 nT now
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength - the ceiling on how negative Bz can go. A rising Bt alongside a still-fluctuating Bz often leads a stronger southward turn. Observed data only, no forecast product exists for Bt.
Global Storm Trend27 global now
Global (hemisphere-wide, not this city) prediction score over the last 24 hours, logged every 5 minutes - may differ from the Prediction ring above, which is specific to this location and time of night. Red above 70, yellow 50-70, teal below 50 - same thresholds used everywhere else on this page. Dashed line is the overall trend.
Dst History-13 nT now
Kyoto Dst geomagnetic storm index over the last 24 hours. Negative = ring-current energy stored = an active storm, not just predicted. Red below −50nT, yellow −20 to −50nT, teal above −20nT.
Solar Wind Speed & Pressure
Each line is scaled independently to its own 24h range (different units) - watch the shape, not a shared axis. A rising speed line or a pressure spike can signal an incoming stream or shock before Bz/Dst move.
Nerd Mode: See what’s really driving the score. Live solar wind, Bz, Kp, Dst, CME timing, and more. Data comes from NOAA SWPC and the Kyoto WDC, with a few metrics calculated here from the raw data. Live data refreshes every minute; trend charts every five.
Aurora Forecasts for Nearby Cities
Checking conditions somewhere else tonight? These are the closest cities with their own northern lights prediction.
- Red Deer 144 km
- Calgary 281 km
- Fort McMurray 377 km
- Grande Prairie 389 km
- Lethbridge 430 km
- Medicine Hat 435 km
- Saskatoon 483 km
- Dawson Creek 500 km
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Browse all prediction cities →
